Torben Arnold
Visiting Fellow
International Security Affairs Division, German Institute for International and Security Affairs
Germany
Torben.Arnold@swp-berlin.org
On September 26, both Nordstream pipelines were damaged to such an extent that they had to be taken out of service immediately. The investigation by Denmark and Sweden is still ongoing, with no further details having been released so far - at least officially. Germany, as a former user, is having an own investigation, but is still waiting for the results of the survey. In the meantime, there are diverse discussions about who the mastermind of this attack was. This incident is a good example of how vulnerable critical infrastructure is in parts of Europe, and how difficult it is to pinpoint the offender.
New security architecture
From now on many stakeholders in the Baltic Sea are looking for solutions to protect pipelines, data cables and other infrastructure that are currently not sufficiently secured. There is a huge need to analyse what future threats might look like and what the best idea is for a joint plan to secure their the infrastructure in this region. This is necessary to prevent unwanted surprises from occurring again. In order to have a better answer to this question and to the security policy issues of the future, Germany feels the need to have its own National Security Strategy (NSS). The initiative for this was launched at the beginning in the coalition agreement. Having passed the set release date, the document is now expected to appear in the summer or thereafter. It will define the concept of security across all ministries and functions as a point of orientation for foreign and security policy. This may be one possible approach to better protect infrastructure from a national perspective and in a transnational context. In addition, a draft is currently being prepared with a focus on critical infrastructure protection. The idea of thinking about security in a comprehensive and holistic way is an important step for Germany's return to strategic action and taking into account that security cannot be established by military means alone. With the NATO accession of Sweden and Finland, the spatial order in the Baltic Sea will change. NATO will get two very reliable and committed partners, but the division of space and responsibility will have to be worked on. Germany would like to take leadership with the offer to establish a Regional Maritime Headquarter. There is no agreement on this yet because Poland and Great Britain have also offered this. An agreement and a final decision on this is still pending.
With his speech on 27 of February 2022, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has launched a 100 billion Euro special fund for the Bundeswehr.
Military capabilities
The aim is to restore the country's military capabilities after years of austerity. This attempt of implementing a peace dividend affected the entire armed forces, led to declining numbers and low operational readiness. This special fund needs to have an effect on all domains. For the Baltic Sea region, Germany's renewed focus on defence could mean that more robust forces can be available in the area. This special fund has not had much of an impact on the maritime capabilities. Essentially the special fund will enable the modernization and the runtime extension of maritime units but all other investments have come from the regular defence budget so far. The first visible sign of “Zeitenwende” in the military sector is the decision to buy f-35 fighter jets from the USA. A total of 35 aircraft will be purchased. These are intended to expand the capabilities of the German Air Force and, among other things, ensure nuclear deterrence. In the Baltic Sea Region there are several users of this aircraft. With its very sufficient capabilities and the growing numbers it could have a real impact on the deterrence against aggressions from the east, and other directions as well. After the illegal Russian invasion of Ukraine there have been a lot of concerns about each countries’ own security especially by nations in the eastern part of Europe. Germany is trying to dissipate these fears against threats from the air and has launched the European Sky Shield Initiative. The idea is to have a joint approach for air defence with common procurement and operating more systems of the same kind. 17 European countries so far have signed the initiative to participate in the German idea. Most recently, Denmark and Sweden joined the initiative.
Way ahead
But all this is to repair the damage caused by Russia to the European security architecture without means of war. More thought needs to be given to what plan for the future can overcome the problems that have caused all these current problems, not just a return to the day before 24 February 2022. Firstly, the main challenge in the Baltic Sea is to link defence concepts in a meaningful way in order to provide the best possible deterrent and to be able to act in the event of a crisis or war, what is done by NATO at the moment. A great overarching task is demanded of Germany with all these points to be considered and serious issues to be addressed. Many European partners are taking a closer look at how Germany is reacting and are adjusting their course accordingly.