Jos Boonstra
Senior Researcher
Centre for European Security Studies
The Netherlands
The countries around the Baltic Sea should not only defend democracy at home through boosting defence expenditure and reinforcing institutions, they also need to continue leading by example abroad. This especially applies to Poland and the Baltic states who’s reform and integration story remains relevant as ever to Moldovans, Georgians and Kyrgyz alike. Cooperation with and support to East European and Central Asian countries will not only help these countries to connect to the European mainstream but also lessen the threats towards Europe and its Baltic region.
The Baltic Sea is surrounded by democratic countries with diverse histories of democratic growth. Germany a founding EU member coming from the most undemocratic past imaginable, Denmark, Finland and Sweden as countries that joined European integration while already boasting functional democracies, Poland transitioning in the nineties from its post-world war communist past and the three Baltic states going through a remarkably quick transition from Soviet republic to EU member state. The exception in Baltic littoral states is Russia with a Freedom House democracy rating of 5 in 2022, compared to Poland’s 59 and Estonia’s 83 score.
It is especially the Baltic states that can lead by example in promoting democracy to those that are keen to reform. It is unfortunate that Poland’s democratic institutions are under threat and become a less vivid example. Whereas West European democracy support can be ‘welcomed’ with suspicion or scepticism, former communist countries can appeal to a shared experience. For them, democracy cannot be instructed but rather inspired or supported with a ‘do-it-yourself’ approach. Poland and the Baltic countries have an active track-record: Poland was for instance the driving force behind establishing the European Endowment for Democracy in Brussels. Current development policies are still heavily democracy promotion-geared. Estonia seeks to help countries with digital transformation that benefits people, not regimes; Latvia has taken a leading role in shaping European policy towards Central Asia; and Lithuania seeks to assist countries like Moldova and Georgia with countering disinformation.
While the development of the Baltic states and Poland works inspiring, the support by Scandinavian countries and Germany remains indispensable in supporting countries that are open to development and connecting to Europe. A more prosperous, resilient and democratic East European neighbourhood – including possibly Central Asian neighbours further down the street – leads to better and more stable relations between the EU and East European countries. The Baltic area is important in helping to shape European development, democracy and integration policies. This applies to three major challenges.
First, helping new candidate members getting ready for actual integration in the European Union. Whereas EU integration has become more political, and less merit based, the actual democratic reforms remain a crucial aspect. In that sense, assistance to Ukraine during and after the war will be crucial in abolishing the influence of oligarchs and countering corruption. Maybe here traditional members with greater resources are well placed (Germany, Sweden).
Second, the Baltic region can be instrumental in helping to revise the Eastern partnership as the distinction between countries with EU membership aspirations and perspective (Moldova, Ukraine and maybe Georgia) with countries uninterested or unable to move on reform and integration (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus and the five Central Asian countries) has grown. A task in which the Baltic states can prove instrumental.
Third, the Baltic region will be important in building relations with a future Russia. Russia might not always stay authoritarian and aggressive but will always be a Baltic region country for better or worse. If the day comes that Russia takes a radically different course, it should be included in cooperation to end the isolation of its people. While to early to predict, Russia could collapse and disintegrate; a situation where Europe and its neighbours will need to reach out and play a stabilising role.
Probably the most stable region in the world is sharing a coastline with one of the most instable countries in the world. Defence alone against aggression is not enough. Building close ties with East European countries that are open to change is more essential than ever; for their benefit, that of the Baltic region, and for Europe as a whole.
The Baltic Sea is surrounded by democratic countries with diverse histories of democratic growth. Germany a founding EU member coming from the most undemocratic past imaginable, Denmark, Finland and Sweden as countries that joined European integration while already boasting functional democracies, Poland transitioning in the nineties from its post-world war communist past and the three Baltic states going through a remarkably quick transition from Soviet republic to EU member state. The exception in Baltic littoral states is Russia with a Freedom House democracy rating of 5 in 2022, compared to Poland’s 59 and Estonia’s 83 score.
It is especially the Baltic states that can lead by example in promoting democracy to those that are keen to reform. It is unfortunate that Poland’s democratic institutions are under threat and become a less vivid example. Whereas West European democracy support can be ‘welcomed’ with suspicion or scepticism, former communist countries can appeal to a shared experience. For them, democracy cannot be instructed but rather inspired or supported with a ‘do-it-yourself’ approach. Poland and the Baltic countries have an active track-record: Poland was for instance the driving force behind establishing the European Endowment for Democracy in Brussels. Current development policies are still heavily democracy promotion-geared. Estonia seeks to help countries with digital transformation that benefits people, not regimes; Latvia has taken a leading role in shaping European policy towards Central Asia; and Lithuania seeks to assist countries like Moldova and Georgia with countering disinformation.
While the development of the Baltic states and Poland works inspiring, the support by Scandinavian countries and Germany remains indispensable in supporting countries that are open to development and connecting to Europe. A more prosperous, resilient and democratic East European neighbourhood – including possibly Central Asian neighbours further down the street – leads to better and more stable relations between the EU and East European countries. The Baltic area is important in helping to shape European development, democracy and integration policies. This applies to three major challenges.
First, helping new candidate members getting ready for actual integration in the European Union. Whereas EU integration has become more political, and less merit based, the actual democratic reforms remain a crucial aspect. In that sense, assistance to Ukraine during and after the war will be crucial in abolishing the influence of oligarchs and countering corruption. Maybe here traditional members with greater resources are well placed (Germany, Sweden).
Second, the Baltic region can be instrumental in helping to revise the Eastern partnership as the distinction between countries with EU membership aspirations and perspective (Moldova, Ukraine and maybe Georgia) with countries uninterested or unable to move on reform and integration (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus and the five Central Asian countries) has grown. A task in which the Baltic states can prove instrumental.
Third, the Baltic region will be important in building relations with a future Russia. Russia might not always stay authoritarian and aggressive but will always be a Baltic region country for better or worse. If the day comes that Russia takes a radically different course, it should be included in cooperation to end the isolation of its people. While to early to predict, Russia could collapse and disintegrate; a situation where Europe and its neighbours will need to reach out and play a stabilising role.
Probably the most stable region in the world is sharing a coastline with one of the most instable countries in the world. Defence alone against aggression is not enough. Building close ties with East European countries that are open to change is more essential than ever; for their benefit, that of the Baltic region, and for Europe as a whole.