Associate Professor
Department of Political Science, University of Gothenburg
Sweden
The Security Council is frequently understood – dismissed even – as entirely in the control of the five permanent members (P5). The keen interest for an elected (or nonpermanent) seat among the remaining members of the United Nations suggests that this is an oversimplification, as they judge the Council sufficiently relevant for turning a candidature into a foreign policy priority. Persistent work by the ten elected members (E10) may also possibly nudge the processes and decisions of the Council away from the most extreme outcomes associated with the advantages held by the P5. To accomplish such persistence requires both 1) representation at regular intervals to establish sufficient knowledge and skills to ‘play the game’ for individual states and 2) ambitious coordination between in- and outgoing members to maintain coherence and efficiency. Among small states, the Nordic Baltic group (NB8) is ideally situated to meet these basic conditions for meaningful presence around the table of the world’s most powerful.
On every single occasion, a successful candidature for an elected seat in the Security Council is a prestigious accomplishment with a two-years access to global political authority as the result. For the appointments, the UN Charter instructs member states to pay special attention to contributions ‘to the maintenance of international peace and security and to the other purposes of the Organization…’ (Article 23, 1). Winning an elected seat on the Security Council requires two thirds of the votes from the member states in the General Assembly. Each term lasts for two years, and there is a rotation of five seats on each occasion. Since 2015, the elections take place in June each year. The nomination of candidatures occurs within five regional groups, with the following distribution: three for the African Group (AG), two for Asia and the Pacific Group, one from Eastern European Group (EEG), two from Latin American and the Caribbean (GRULAC), and two from the Western Europe and Others group (WEOG). On even calendar years, there are elections for one seat from the African group, one from the Asia-Pacific group, one from the Latin America and Caribbean group, and two from the WEOG. On odd calendar years, there are elections for two seats from the African group, one from the Asia-Pacific group, one from the Latin America and Caribbean group, and one from the EEG. The Nordic states, all members of the WEOG, have agreed on a turn-taking order with a Nordic state candidature on every second election. After a disappointing two electoral losses in a row – Iceland in 2008 and Finland in 2012 – the negative trend was broken through a Swedish win in the 2016 election, and a positive path established through a Norwegian win in 2020. Currently, there is a Danish candidature for the 2024 election. The Baltic states are members of the EEG. Lithuania served in the Security Council during the 2014-15 term and Estonia during the 2020-21 term. Currently, there is a Latvian candidature for the 2025 election.
Over time, the Security Council elections reflect the asymmetries in access to influence and status acquired between states. After more than 70 years of elections, there is a team of four top players who have served eight times or more, while 58 states are still awaiting the opportunity. The top players are all regional powers: India (8), Argentina (9), Brazil (11) and Japan (12). At least half of the never elected states qualify as small states on basis of population and/or territory, and many of them are members of the coalition of Small Island Developing States (SIDS). States who are elected on frequent intervals get the advantage in terms of accumulated knowledges and skills, which improves their capacity to match the institutionalized competences the P5 enjoy from their permanent presence in the Council. In contrast, countries never yet elected face the challenge of a very first forthcoming term without previous experience from this international office.
The Nordic-Baltic group has the chance of representation at regular intervals as well as to assist each other ahead of and during a (first) membership. Even if each candidature is solely on behalf of the state who has launched it, the Nordic and Baltic states do also collaborate and support each other’s candidatures and memberships. Since they belong to different regional groups, who rotate seats on different calendar years, NB8 collaboration comes with the rare opportunity to maintain a more enduring representation on behalf of the group in the Council. Between 2017 and 2022, there was a Nordic or a Baltic state in the Council in 5 out of 6 years. In 2021, both Estonia and Norway were present in the Council. Should the two current candidatures, Denmark for 2025-26 and Latvia for 2026-27, also succeed, this Nordic-Baltic presence will be repeated in 2026. The Nordic-Baltic group can work strategically on Security Council representation to make the most possible out of the opportunities established from their close relationship and collaboration.
On every single occasion, a successful candidature for an elected seat in the Security Council is a prestigious accomplishment with a two-years access to global political authority as the result. For the appointments, the UN Charter instructs member states to pay special attention to contributions ‘to the maintenance of international peace and security and to the other purposes of the Organization…’ (Article 23, 1). Winning an elected seat on the Security Council requires two thirds of the votes from the member states in the General Assembly. Each term lasts for two years, and there is a rotation of five seats on each occasion. Since 2015, the elections take place in June each year. The nomination of candidatures occurs within five regional groups, with the following distribution: three for the African Group (AG), two for Asia and the Pacific Group, one from Eastern European Group (EEG), two from Latin American and the Caribbean (GRULAC), and two from the Western Europe and Others group (WEOG). On even calendar years, there are elections for one seat from the African group, one from the Asia-Pacific group, one from the Latin America and Caribbean group, and two from the WEOG. On odd calendar years, there are elections for two seats from the African group, one from the Asia-Pacific group, one from the Latin America and Caribbean group, and one from the EEG. The Nordic states, all members of the WEOG, have agreed on a turn-taking order with a Nordic state candidature on every second election. After a disappointing two electoral losses in a row – Iceland in 2008 and Finland in 2012 – the negative trend was broken through a Swedish win in the 2016 election, and a positive path established through a Norwegian win in 2020. Currently, there is a Danish candidature for the 2024 election. The Baltic states are members of the EEG. Lithuania served in the Security Council during the 2014-15 term and Estonia during the 2020-21 term. Currently, there is a Latvian candidature for the 2025 election.
Over time, the Security Council elections reflect the asymmetries in access to influence and status acquired between states. After more than 70 years of elections, there is a team of four top players who have served eight times or more, while 58 states are still awaiting the opportunity. The top players are all regional powers: India (8), Argentina (9), Brazil (11) and Japan (12). At least half of the never elected states qualify as small states on basis of population and/or territory, and many of them are members of the coalition of Small Island Developing States (SIDS). States who are elected on frequent intervals get the advantage in terms of accumulated knowledges and skills, which improves their capacity to match the institutionalized competences the P5 enjoy from their permanent presence in the Council. In contrast, countries never yet elected face the challenge of a very first forthcoming term without previous experience from this international office.
The Nordic-Baltic group has the chance of representation at regular intervals as well as to assist each other ahead of and during a (first) membership. Even if each candidature is solely on behalf of the state who has launched it, the Nordic and Baltic states do also collaborate and support each other’s candidatures and memberships. Since they belong to different regional groups, who rotate seats on different calendar years, NB8 collaboration comes with the rare opportunity to maintain a more enduring representation on behalf of the group in the Council. Between 2017 and 2022, there was a Nordic or a Baltic state in the Council in 5 out of 6 years. In 2021, both Estonia and Norway were present in the Council. Should the two current candidatures, Denmark for 2025-26 and Latvia for 2026-27, also succeed, this Nordic-Baltic presence will be repeated in 2026. The Nordic-Baltic group can work strategically on Security Council representation to make the most possible out of the opportunities established from their close relationship and collaboration.