Hilde-Gunn Bye
Journalist
High North News
Norway
hilde-gunn.bye@nord.no
The United States has increased its attention toward the Arctic in a way that is dispelling a common notion of the US as a slightly reluctant Arctic actor. Compared to other Arctic states like Norway and Russia where the region is a central part of national security policy, the US has kept it at a somewhat distance. The Arctic was indeed strategically important to the US for many decades, such as during the Cold War, as it was the shortest route for Soviet missiles to target North America. Afterward, the region has often been discussed in the context of climate change and environmental and economic issues. In recent years, the Arctic has re-emerged on the security policy agenda in Washington D.C. and the Pentagon. The military significance of Alaska is renewed and US forces frequently exercise in the European High North.
The US Department of Defense’s Arctic strategy from 2019 describes the Arctic region as a potential avenue for expanded great power competition, pointing specifically to the activities and ambitions of Russia and China. Various subsequent and first-ever Arctic strategies were presented by US military departments, such as the Air Force and Army, signaling the increased importance of the Arctic to the US. The strategies build on the key themes of counteracting great power rivals, as well as enhancing and regaining US Arctic capabilities, for instance through cold-weather training operations in – and with – other Arctic states.
Great power competition is perhaps the most important factor when explaining the re-emergence of US security policy focus toward the Arctic. During the last decade, Russia has increased its military capabilities and activities in the High North. The security situation in the Arctic also changed after the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014. This, along with physical changes in the environment, has contributed to the increase of the region’s geopolitical significance.
In the Arctic, various geographical subregions hold different security dynamics. Russia’s Northern Fleet is located only a few miles from the Norwegian border in the north, on the Kola Peninsula in the European Arctic. The nuclear missiles on the submarines operating in these areas constitute Russia’s second-strike capabilities and are some of the most dangerous threats the US is facing, making this a particular area of geostrategic importance.
In the case of the Arctic, much of the great power competition takes place in the European High North, such as the Barents Sea. The increased US military activity is therefore particularly noticeable in Norway, and in Norway’s northern neighborhood. The military presence in this area seems also to have expanded both in level and type of activity.
One example of the increased engagement is the re-activation of the US Second Fleet in 2018. The fleet has specific responsibilities in the North Atlantic and its re-activation can be seen as part of a wider U.S. strategy for countering Russia in an era of increased strategic competition. The same year, during the NATO military exercise Trident Juncture in Norway, a US aircraft carrier operated in the waters north of the Arctic Circle for the first time in almost three decades. In May 2020, U.S. Navy surface vessels operated in the Barents Sea for the first time since the mid-80s, in a joint exercise with Great Britain. Likewise, US Air Force bombers have more frequently operated in this area.
In order to prepare for potential large-scale conflict, and deter state competitors in the Arctic region and elsewhere, the US has had a shift in military doctrine, and puts more emphasis on military flexibility and being operationally unpredictable. These are central tools introduced in the 2018 National Defense Strategy. Some of the recent American operations in the European High North, where operational surprise is a central element, can be seen in the context of the new military doctrine, argue researchers from CSIS and the Norwegian Institute for Defense Studies. The Indo-Pacific and China will most likely be the number one priority for the US in the coming years. That may also further affect the US operational pattern in the High North.
Norwegian ministers of defense have welcomed the increased interest and dedication to the High North from its most important ally, the US. In light of the Russian war in Ukraine, the renewed US effort in the Arctic can be viewed as a highly valued deterrent seen from the perspective of Norwegian authorities.
Simultaneously, Norway emphasizes predictability around military activity in the High North, as well as its role concerning coordination of allied military activities in the immediate neighborhood. With increasing tensions, ensuring predictability and stability may be more important than ever. In this context, taking into account the Norwegian perspective of the High North may provide useful insights to avoid miscalculations and escalation.