Ph.D.,Visiting Lecturer
The Baltic Defence College
Estonia/Poland
Poland has recently become an active partner joining the global race for nuclear development through the decision it has made. There are a few potential partners, i.e., the U.S., France, South Korea, Russia, China and Canada, that are global leaders in building nuclear power plants. Nevertheless, the most important element is the offers that can really be presented and later accepted. Based on the potential in the process of building nuclear reactors on Polish territory, and highlighting the influence of politics on that decision, offers from the Americans, and the Koreans are were accepted and the French are still under consideration.
Although only six partners were considered, as they were the most actively involved in developing nuclear energy in foreign countries, their potential is very significant. If the simultaneous strengthening of political and economic capabilities is analyzed, the competition for global nuclear development in the coming decades will be participated by only a few countries.
Although coal continues to play a dominant role in Poland’s energy mix, it should be noted that its importance is declining. In the early 1990s, coal-fired power generated more than 130,000 GWh. Due to the growing energy demand, with still little or no development of other energy sources, in 2006 coal-fired power plants in Poland generated 148,600 GWh. Thus, coal accounted for 90% of the Polish mix. In 2020, coal-fired power plants generated only just over 109,000 GWh.
Most of Poland’s coal-fired power plants were built between 1960 and 1980. Hence, in the upcoming years they will require either a major renovation and upgrade or phasing off and decommissioning. Renewable energy is being developed, but in Polish conditions it will not have the opportunity to become a major source of energy. That is why it is so important to build a nuclear power plant. It will allow a significant reduction in coal-fired power generation and the share of coal in the Polish energy mix.
The distinction of countries that are most actively engaged in the construction of nuclear power plants worldwide demonstrates how dynamic this market is. This is not just a contemporary dilemma faced by Poland. More and more countries will opt to use the atom, and by doing so they will engage energy giants to implement their own projects. Therefore, one must take into account that not only Poland’s allies, but also the Russians and the Chinese will be highly expansive in their nuclear diplomacy. That entails investments all over the world, with a particular focus on South America, Africa and the Middle East. The construction process itself is long-lasting and creates a commitment of the contractor state with the recipient state in terms of politics and energy.
Developing nuclear capabilities of Poland is part of the international rivalry regarding energy security. Given the time required to build and commission a power plant, all measures should be taken in the coming months. The race for international diversification has begun a long time ago, but it is still possible to join it to have an energy source that will be a fundamental part of Poland’s energy security. The atom enhances the building of democratic independence from other, external energy sources. In consequence, countries that can use nuclear energy will not be forced to cooperate with countries that are, for example, authoritarian, or those that manipulate the market of raw materials to achieve the best possible prices and politically influence the buyers.
The most important decision, to build a nuclear power plant, has already been made. Poland is considering only the following three partners, although globally there could be even more than ten potential investors: the U.S., France and South Korea. Each of these countries brings with that investment many other projects and opportunities, in addition to the development of nuclear energy. This is the next chapter in the cooperation with Poland, which will be one of the foundations of further bilateral relations. The United States, which is already Poland’s closest ally, would further strengthen its influence and gain an opportunity for further investments in the years to come. France could develop a strong new alliance in Europe, while seeking cooperation and agreement within the European Union. On the other hand, South Korea would continue to strengthen relations with Poland, just after the armament purchase agreements were signed. When choosing a partner, it is important to remember that it is taken over as a whole, and this means directing Poland's foreign policy in a specific direction.
The declared cost of building 1 GW of nuclear power in Poland will range from PLN 13.4 billion to PLN 23.2 billion, depending on the bid (1 EUR – 4,5 PLN). The three most likely suppliers are considered. Korean option: APR1400 – PLN 13.4 billion/GW, U.S. option: AP1000 – PLN 19.7 billion/GW, and French option: EPR I – PLN 23.2 billion/GW. The average cost of building two nuclear power plants in Poland is PLN 184 billion, provided there are no significant delays. In addition, the nuclear plants built will meet between 25.6% (for 6.6 GW capacity) to 38.4% (for 9.9 GW capacity) of annual energy demand in 2043. The numbers may still fluctuate, plus the decision is strongly linked with the political aspect, which cannot be valued.
It is required to consider how the world is adversely affected by CO2 emissions, which will reach record-breaking levels in the upcoming years. Already now, a significant factor contributing to higher carbon emissions is the winter and the use of fossil fuel stocks accumulated during the pandemic. Now they are used, as there are concerns about how the energy market will develop with, for example, a reduced use of raw materials from Russia. It is true that renewable energy sources are seen as inadequate in many countries in the face of crises, but at the same time, price volatility and disruptions in the supply of, say, oil and gas make it necessary to move towards more stable sources. For example, by creating a balanced energy mix. Moreover, it is the European Union that requires us to reduce CO2 emissions. From the perspective of the future of the Polish power industry, it should be indicated that nuclear power does not stand at the opposite end to coal power; conversely, it will help it meet the requirements of European climate policy. The challenge to be dealt with is the energy transition and departing from coal by 2049.
The development of nuclear power, whether as part of SMRs or large nuclear units, is beginning to fulfill two fundamental tasks. Firstly, it is a part of an energy development strategy by reducing carbon emissions, among others, which is consistent with the climate policy and the restrictions imposed by international treaties. Secondly, it fits into the development of diversified energy sources, where the most important thing is to create conditions within the energy security. It is true that it is impossible to operate entirely independently in terms of energy (in Poland), as some raw materials will still have to be imported (for the time being, there are no plans to extract uranium, since it is not profitable). Nevertheless, it will be possible to significantly reduce the import of non-renewable raw materials if the use of nuclear energy is introduced into domestic sources. Poland will build nuclear power plants, and is it only a matter of time when the first reactor starts to operate. Above all, there are more Central European Countries that are also aiming at having power plants. The atomization became crucial.
Although only six partners were considered, as they were the most actively involved in developing nuclear energy in foreign countries, their potential is very significant. If the simultaneous strengthening of political and economic capabilities is analyzed, the competition for global nuclear development in the coming decades will be participated by only a few countries.
Although coal continues to play a dominant role in Poland’s energy mix, it should be noted that its importance is declining. In the early 1990s, coal-fired power generated more than 130,000 GWh. Due to the growing energy demand, with still little or no development of other energy sources, in 2006 coal-fired power plants in Poland generated 148,600 GWh. Thus, coal accounted for 90% of the Polish mix. In 2020, coal-fired power plants generated only just over 109,000 GWh.
Most of Poland’s coal-fired power plants were built between 1960 and 1980. Hence, in the upcoming years they will require either a major renovation and upgrade or phasing off and decommissioning. Renewable energy is being developed, but in Polish conditions it will not have the opportunity to become a major source of energy. That is why it is so important to build a nuclear power plant. It will allow a significant reduction in coal-fired power generation and the share of coal in the Polish energy mix.
The distinction of countries that are most actively engaged in the construction of nuclear power plants worldwide demonstrates how dynamic this market is. This is not just a contemporary dilemma faced by Poland. More and more countries will opt to use the atom, and by doing so they will engage energy giants to implement their own projects. Therefore, one must take into account that not only Poland’s allies, but also the Russians and the Chinese will be highly expansive in their nuclear diplomacy. That entails investments all over the world, with a particular focus on South America, Africa and the Middle East. The construction process itself is long-lasting and creates a commitment of the contractor state with the recipient state in terms of politics and energy.
Developing nuclear capabilities of Poland is part of the international rivalry regarding energy security. Given the time required to build and commission a power plant, all measures should be taken in the coming months. The race for international diversification has begun a long time ago, but it is still possible to join it to have an energy source that will be a fundamental part of Poland’s energy security. The atom enhances the building of democratic independence from other, external energy sources. In consequence, countries that can use nuclear energy will not be forced to cooperate with countries that are, for example, authoritarian, or those that manipulate the market of raw materials to achieve the best possible prices and politically influence the buyers.
The most important decision, to build a nuclear power plant, has already been made. Poland is considering only the following three partners, although globally there could be even more than ten potential investors: the U.S., France and South Korea. Each of these countries brings with that investment many other projects and opportunities, in addition to the development of nuclear energy. This is the next chapter in the cooperation with Poland, which will be one of the foundations of further bilateral relations. The United States, which is already Poland’s closest ally, would further strengthen its influence and gain an opportunity for further investments in the years to come. France could develop a strong new alliance in Europe, while seeking cooperation and agreement within the European Union. On the other hand, South Korea would continue to strengthen relations with Poland, just after the armament purchase agreements were signed. When choosing a partner, it is important to remember that it is taken over as a whole, and this means directing Poland's foreign policy in a specific direction.
The declared cost of building 1 GW of nuclear power in Poland will range from PLN 13.4 billion to PLN 23.2 billion, depending on the bid (1 EUR – 4,5 PLN). The three most likely suppliers are considered. Korean option: APR1400 – PLN 13.4 billion/GW, U.S. option: AP1000 – PLN 19.7 billion/GW, and French option: EPR I – PLN 23.2 billion/GW. The average cost of building two nuclear power plants in Poland is PLN 184 billion, provided there are no significant delays. In addition, the nuclear plants built will meet between 25.6% (for 6.6 GW capacity) to 38.4% (for 9.9 GW capacity) of annual energy demand in 2043. The numbers may still fluctuate, plus the decision is strongly linked with the political aspect, which cannot be valued.
It is required to consider how the world is adversely affected by CO2 emissions, which will reach record-breaking levels in the upcoming years. Already now, a significant factor contributing to higher carbon emissions is the winter and the use of fossil fuel stocks accumulated during the pandemic. Now they are used, as there are concerns about how the energy market will develop with, for example, a reduced use of raw materials from Russia. It is true that renewable energy sources are seen as inadequate in many countries in the face of crises, but at the same time, price volatility and disruptions in the supply of, say, oil and gas make it necessary to move towards more stable sources. For example, by creating a balanced energy mix. Moreover, it is the European Union that requires us to reduce CO2 emissions. From the perspective of the future of the Polish power industry, it should be indicated that nuclear power does not stand at the opposite end to coal power; conversely, it will help it meet the requirements of European climate policy. The challenge to be dealt with is the energy transition and departing from coal by 2049.
The development of nuclear power, whether as part of SMRs or large nuclear units, is beginning to fulfill two fundamental tasks. Firstly, it is a part of an energy development strategy by reducing carbon emissions, among others, which is consistent with the climate policy and the restrictions imposed by international treaties. Secondly, it fits into the development of diversified energy sources, where the most important thing is to create conditions within the energy security. It is true that it is impossible to operate entirely independently in terms of energy (in Poland), as some raw materials will still have to be imported (for the time being, there are no plans to extract uranium, since it is not profitable). Nevertheless, it will be possible to significantly reduce the import of non-renewable raw materials if the use of nuclear energy is introduced into domestic sources. Poland will build nuclear power plants, and is it only a matter of time when the first reactor starts to operate. Above all, there are more Central European Countries that are also aiming at having power plants. The atomization became crucial.