Håkon Lunde Saxi
Associate Professor
Norwegian Defence University College
Norway
A revolution is taking place in Nordic military affairs. While Finland and Sweden’s decision to seek membership in NATO in May 2022 has undoubtedly speed up this development, the momentum and direction of movement began already in the wake of Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014. The territorial revisionism of President Vladimir Putin’s increasingly authoritarian Russia caused a marked deterioration in the external security environment of the Nordic states, and they responded firstly by strengthening their own defence capabilities, secondly by strengthening ties with their allies and partners outside the region, and finally, by developing their own ability to stand together and cooperate ‘at home’ in the Nordic region if a major crisis or armed conflict should occur. Their purpose was first and foremost to strengthen deterrence, to prevent such a crisis, but secondly to better enable them to defend their countries if needed.
The ambition to develop Nordic Defence Cooperation (NORDEFCO) as something that worked beyond peacetime became an important and recurring theme in NORDEFCO in the post-2014 years. It stood at the centre of the revised ‘NORDEFCO Vision 2025’ adopted by the Nordic ministers of defence in 2018. The vision looked to improve ‘cooperation in peace, crisis and conflict’ and sought to strengthen ‘interoperability, deterrence and territorial defence in the Nordic region’.
Several large military exercises in the region, involving troops from both the Nordic states as well as from the United States and other NATO-countries, played an important part in these efforts. Exercises developed interoperability among participating forces and signalled to Russia that the Nordic states were able and willing to stand together as neighbours if, at some point, this should become necessary. Aurora 2017 in Sweden and the NATO-led Trident Juncture 2018 in Norway were some of the most important ‘high-visibility exercises’ undertaken, involving respectively about 20,000 and 50,000 troops.
The Nordic states also began gradually to seek to coordinate their national operational defence plans ‒ i.e., their ‘war plans’. Militarily non-aligned Sweden and Finland agreed in 2015 that discussions between their respective armed forces could include how to cooperate in times of crisis and war, and in 2018 the two countries signed a memorandum of understanding allowing Swedish–Finnish military cooperation to cover ‘operational planning in all contingencies’. NATO-members Norway and Denmark coordinated their national defence plans closely with NATO plans, as well as with selected allied countries such as the United States.
The most important factor limiting Nordic cooperation ‘beyond peacetime’ remained the different alignments of the Nordic states, namely Sweden’s and Finland’s non-membership in NATO. While they intensified ties with NATO and the West since 2014, there were some firm limits on what was possible without being full members of the alliance. Joint defence planning with NATO was one such area.
In 2020, Norway, Sweden and Finland signed a statement of intent with the aim of ‘coordinating’ their respective national operational plans, followed by Norway, Sweden, and Denmark in 2021. The goal was to ‘coordinate’ their respective national operational plans, and examen the possibility of developing ‘common’ plans ‘in certain areas’. But any such plans would have remained options since none of these agreements contained mutual defence obligations.
With Finland’s NATO-membership in April 2023, soon to be followed also by Sweden, the last security policy obstacle to common Nordic defence planning is being swept away. Soon, national operational plans will be closely coordinated with each other, with NATO regional plans, and with the national plans of some of the major NATO-states. Nordic cooperation ‘beyond peacetime’ is already blossoming in several fields.
The Nordic Chiefs of Defence have advised that the Nordic states should be placed under the same NATO joint operational headquarter and that they develop common plans for receiving allied reinforcements to the region. The Nordic air forces have also signed a declaration of intent to integrate their forces to bolster the regions defence. Most importantly, they aim to coordinate the employment of their 250 modern 4th and 5th generation combat aircraft. A joint Nordic air operations centre may follow, to exercise unified command over their air assets in the region.
For the time being, the Nordic armed forces are focused on preparing for operational military cooperation in crisis and wartime. However, in time, it is possible that the Nordic states will also seek to enhance their defence industrial cooperation and seek to develop some military capabilities together. In short, we are witnessing an ongoing revolution in Nordic military affairs which few would have predicted a decade ago.
The ambition to develop Nordic Defence Cooperation (NORDEFCO) as something that worked beyond peacetime became an important and recurring theme in NORDEFCO in the post-2014 years. It stood at the centre of the revised ‘NORDEFCO Vision 2025’ adopted by the Nordic ministers of defence in 2018. The vision looked to improve ‘cooperation in peace, crisis and conflict’ and sought to strengthen ‘interoperability, deterrence and territorial defence in the Nordic region’.
Several large military exercises in the region, involving troops from both the Nordic states as well as from the United States and other NATO-countries, played an important part in these efforts. Exercises developed interoperability among participating forces and signalled to Russia that the Nordic states were able and willing to stand together as neighbours if, at some point, this should become necessary. Aurora 2017 in Sweden and the NATO-led Trident Juncture 2018 in Norway were some of the most important ‘high-visibility exercises’ undertaken, involving respectively about 20,000 and 50,000 troops.
The Nordic states also began gradually to seek to coordinate their national operational defence plans ‒ i.e., their ‘war plans’. Militarily non-aligned Sweden and Finland agreed in 2015 that discussions between their respective armed forces could include how to cooperate in times of crisis and war, and in 2018 the two countries signed a memorandum of understanding allowing Swedish–Finnish military cooperation to cover ‘operational planning in all contingencies’. NATO-members Norway and Denmark coordinated their national defence plans closely with NATO plans, as well as with selected allied countries such as the United States.
The most important factor limiting Nordic cooperation ‘beyond peacetime’ remained the different alignments of the Nordic states, namely Sweden’s and Finland’s non-membership in NATO. While they intensified ties with NATO and the West since 2014, there were some firm limits on what was possible without being full members of the alliance. Joint defence planning with NATO was one such area.
In 2020, Norway, Sweden and Finland signed a statement of intent with the aim of ‘coordinating’ their respective national operational plans, followed by Norway, Sweden, and Denmark in 2021. The goal was to ‘coordinate’ their respective national operational plans, and examen the possibility of developing ‘common’ plans ‘in certain areas’. But any such plans would have remained options since none of these agreements contained mutual defence obligations.
With Finland’s NATO-membership in April 2023, soon to be followed also by Sweden, the last security policy obstacle to common Nordic defence planning is being swept away. Soon, national operational plans will be closely coordinated with each other, with NATO regional plans, and with the national plans of some of the major NATO-states. Nordic cooperation ‘beyond peacetime’ is already blossoming in several fields.
The Nordic Chiefs of Defence have advised that the Nordic states should be placed under the same NATO joint operational headquarter and that they develop common plans for receiving allied reinforcements to the region. The Nordic air forces have also signed a declaration of intent to integrate their forces to bolster the regions defence. Most importantly, they aim to coordinate the employment of their 250 modern 4th and 5th generation combat aircraft. A joint Nordic air operations centre may follow, to exercise unified command over their air assets in the region.
For the time being, the Nordic armed forces are focused on preparing for operational military cooperation in crisis and wartime. However, in time, it is possible that the Nordic states will also seek to enhance their defence industrial cooperation and seek to develop some military capabilities together. In short, we are witnessing an ongoing revolution in Nordic military affairs which few would have predicted a decade ago.