Senior Research Fellow
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Finland
tuomas.iso-markku@fiia.fi
Germany’s three-party “traffic light” government of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Free Democratic Party (FDP) and the Greens crumbled on 6 November 2024. As the country heads towards early elections, scheduled for February 2025, the centre-right alliance of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its sister party, the Christian Social Union in Bavaria (CSU), leads the polls by a wide margin and seems well placed to lead the next government. Even if recent political volatility in Germany suggests that no election outcome should be taken for granted beforehand, it is safe to say that the CDU/CSU is likely to have a crucial role in shaping Germany’s future, as it is difficult to imagine any government without its involvement. But even beyond simple coalition arithmetic, the way the CDU/CSU positions itself can prove consequential for the political dynamics in Germany.
Like many European countries, Germany has recently witnessed the emergence of an increasingly unpredictable and fragmented political landscape. While this transformation began already in the 1980s, it has gathered pace since 2013 with the rise of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and, most recently, the establishment of the “left-conservative” Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW). The latter enjoyed notable electoral success in the 2024 European Parliament elections as well as in three state elections in September 2024. Both the AfD and the BSW have been particularly strong in the eastern parts of Germany, where the electoral landscape has always been different from the rest of the country. However, the electoral potential of the AfD and the BSW is by no means limited to eastern Germany only – and is already shaping politics at the federal level as well.
The changes in Germany’s political landscape challenge above all its traditional powerhouses, the CDU/CSU and the SPD, which have long dominated German politics and alternately led the federal government. In the fragmenting party system, both have had to think hard about their own profile – and have also been forced to enter new kinds of government coalitions and compromises. This trend was exemplified by the traffic light coalition, which proved highly dysfunctional. After the strenuous years in government, the SPD now polls at 15%. By contrast, the CDU/CSU’s position seems more stable. However, it too has struggled to come to terms with the new political realities, which test both its unity and its values.
As a “big-tent coalition” that brings together Christian-social, liberal and conservative forces, the CSU/CSU has historically acted as a stabilising factor in German politics, successfully containing far-right forces. However, the ability of the AfD to consolidate its place in the German political system defies the CDU/CSU’s claim to keep the political fringes in check. Even more importantly, it has led to significant tensions within the CDU/CSU, with the liberal and conservative parts of the party at odds over how to respond to the AfD’s rise and the broader changes in German politics.
In essence, the more conservative forces within the CDU/CSU posit that it was the CDU/CSU itself that first allowed the AfD to grow, moving too far to the political centre and sacrificing the core of its Christian-conservative profile, thereby freeing up political space for the AfD to occupy. Consequently, the conservatives demand the CDU/CSU to adopt a “clearer” stance especially regarding migration to lure back disgruntled former supporters. The liberal forces within the CDU/CSU, on the other hand, contend that elections are won by opening the party to new voter groups that can be found around the political centre. These parts of the CDU/CSU would prefer to respond to the AfD by challenging its narratives and positions as well as by cooperating with the other centrist political forces to keep the AfD out of positions of power.
The CDU/CSU’s internal tensions started to show during the latter part of Angela Merkel’s chancellorship – and have been particularly visible since Merkel withdrew from her position as CDU leader in 2018. Since then, the CDU has seen several intense and divisive leadership battles. After the short leadership terms of the centrist Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer and the liberal Armin Laschet, the party elected the conservative Friedrich Merz as its chair. Merz will also be the CDU/CSU’s chancellor candidate in the 2025 electoral race.
Initially striving to create unity, Merz has recently steered the CDU/CSU notably to the right, especially regarding immigration, which remains a central and highly contested issue in Germany. Moreover, Merz – together with CSU leader Markus Söder – has chosen the Greens as the CDU/CSU’s primary adversary. While this course is welcomed by the more conservative parts of the party, including many in eastern German states, it is not to the liking of the more liberal party members. Moreover, it could prove a challenge if the CDU/CSU is indeed able to win the 2025 election. In that case, it will likely need to form a government with the centre-left SPD or even the Greens.