Michael A.
Hansen
Associate
Professor of Political Science
University of
Turku
Finland
At the conclusion of Political Entrepreneurship in the Age of Dealignment: The Populist Far-Right Alternative for Germany, my co-author Jonathan Olsen and I reflected on the potential future of the Alternative for Germany (AfD). While the political landscape is ever-changing, the AfD remains a significant force in German politics. Recent electoral successes highlight the party’s firm foothold, largely due to its ability to capitalize on political dealignment and leverage crises, positioning itself as a far-right populist alternative.
By consistently exploiting crises, the AfD has solidified its base, particularly in Eastern Germany, and expanded its influence despite controversy surrounding its platform and rhetoric. Whether reacting to the European debt crisis, the refugee crisis, or the COVID-19 pandemic, the party has positioned itself as the voice of those disillusioned with government action. This adaptability has enabled it to align its populist rhetoric with current events where mainstream parties have failed to engage with public concerns, sustaining its momentum in a shifting political landscape.
The AfD's recent electoral performance, particularly in state elections, underscores its growing influence, especially in former East Germany. In Thuringia, the party became the largest political force, securing 23.4% of the vote and 32 out of 88 seats in the state parliament. This unprecedented achievement marks the first time since World War II that a far-right party has emerged as the largest in any German state parliament, reflecting its capacity to tap into local grievances, especially in economically struggling regions. Similarly, in Brandenburg, the AfD came in second with 23.5% of the vote and 30 out of 88 seats, trailing the Social Democratic Party (SPD) by less than 3% of the vote. In Saxony, the AfD garnered 27.5% of the vote, winning 38 out of 120 seats, closely following the CDU, which obtained 32.1%. These results demonstrate the AfD's continued relevance and growing strength in the region.
The broader trend is clear: the AfD has positioned itself as the true opposition to the political establishment in Eastern Germany. Its populist message, centered on anti-immigration, opposition to European integration, and rejection of progressive social policies, resonates with voters who feel marginalized by mainstream parties. Notably, its appeal extends beyond rural or economically distressed regions, gaining traction in some urban settings, further signaling its broadening influence.
Looking ahead, the AfD’s future hinges on its ability to maintain voter support while balancing its increasingly radical ideology with broader electoral appeal. Although the party has successfully tapped into societal anxieties about immigration, national identity, and dissatisfaction with the political establishment, it faces the challenge of retaining its base. The party’s radical positions on immigration and the European Union resonate with core supporters but risk alienating more moderate voters. Further associations with extreme-right groups and endorsement of conspiracy theories could also deter potential voters and risk triggering a constitutional ban under the Basic Law, which prohibits extremist political parties.
Additionally, mainstream parties may adopt some of the AfD’s key issues, such as stricter immigration policy, to reclaim voters. This strategy of platform co-optation could reduce the AfD’s appeal, especially if voters perceive established parties as better positioned to govern. Traditionally, major parties have sought to marginalize far-right movements by isolating them politically, but co-opting portions of their agenda may prove a more pragmatic approach to diminishing the AfD’s political influence.
The AfD’s reliance on crises for electoral success also presents risks. While the party has thrived during periods of economic, social, and political turmoil, it is uncertain how it would perform in a more stable environment where dissatisfaction with the establishment subsides. If Germany experiences relative calm, the AfD may struggle to remain relevant. The party’s controversial positions on international issues, such as skepticism toward Germany’s support for Ukraine or its stance on climate change, could also become liabilities as global dynamics evolve.
Nevertheless, the AfD has firmly established itself in German politics, particularly in Eastern Germany. Whether the new populist Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) or mainstream political parties can attract AfD voters in the 2025 German Federal eEection remains uncertain. The most likely outcome is that the AfD will retain a core group of voters large enough to ensure its parliamentary presence but too small to secure significant governing opportunities.