Tim-Åke Pentz
Political
Scientist, Senior PR-Consultant
HOSCHKE & CONSORTEN Public Relations GmbH
Germany
On September 11 this year, close to three in the morning Dresdens Carola-Bridge collapsed. Luckily no one was harmed. Three to four hours later in the daily rush-hour traffic there would have been casualties. The collapsed bridge is a picture with symbolic meaning which got a lot of media coverage across Germany. Why? Because it did not collapse out of the blue. The building fabric was dilapidated and corroded. This bridge is not an isolated case. Throughout the country, bridges are rotten, railway tracks in need of repair, roads are in a sorry state and school buildings are crumbling.
How does this fit with the fact that Germany is a strong country? At least in terms of GDP, she is the third largest economy in the world, at around 4.5 trillion USD. Despite this at least on the surface apparent robust position, we are currently experiencing a great deal of uncertainty. One indicator: Germans are spending less. „Angstsparen“ this is called - saving money out of „Zukunftsangst“.
It’s a reaction to what can also be described as the expulsion from the German comfort zone. A comfort zone describes an area of private or social life that is characterized by ease and freedom from risk. It is a psychological state where people perceive they are in control of their environment, experiencing low levels of anxiety and stress. The problem: Germans feel, this zone is getting smaller and probably it will even collapse. A result of an intermingling of endogenous and exogenous stressors.
The endogenous, homemade stressors include among others:
- the insufficient spending and misguided policies over the last years sometimes decades on transportation infrastructure, defence, civil defence, housing and the education system
- the reliance on cheap energy aka Russian natural gas to keep energy costs of industrial production as low as possible and thus continue to reap profits, without the pressure to modernize, streamline, developing technologies and opening new markets
- One may also add a failed or at least naive and costly immigration and asylum policy that results in part in the formation of parallel societies instead of attracting needed integration-willing skilled workers with or without families from abroad.
The exogenous stressors include all kinds of dependencies, supply chains disruptions and unsolved conflicts. For example:
- Germany's asymmetric dependency on China. This applies to sales markets (automotive industry and machinery) and the import of goods, some of which are critical for domestic production, but also to pharmaceutical products, like antibiotics. In the event of a crisis, this would be a strategic and political burden.
- The Russian war of aggression against Ukraine which has painfully shown the bleak state of Germany's defence readiness and civil protection and the completely misguided appeasement policy.
- The possible ‘withdrawal of love’ on the part of the incoming US administration in military and economic matters. After all, Germany is dependent on the cooperation with the USA in defence and counterterrorism matters and has so far enjoyed all the advantages of a ‘peace dividend’ in recent decades like cuts in defence spending and the suspension of compulsory military service.
These endogenous and exogenous stressors have certainly increased the level of anxiety and stress among Germans. But there is even worse to come: The concern about living standards is a growing issue for most of the population. In the run-up to the European elections in spring, Infratest dimap's regular surveys found that 50 per cent of people were very concerned that they would no longer be able to maintain their standard of living in the future. These are people with average incomes, families who, until a few years ago, were able to make ends meet and even afford the occasional treat, and who also pay taxes. This class has made Germany great economically. Now it feels left alone in its daily lives.
In times of uncertainty, good leadership and good communication skills may save the day here. However, if one is to believe experienced commentators and analysts in Germany, the constant bickering of the government under Chancellor Scholz has not only cost nerves and reputation at home and abroad. It has also set in motion a self-destructive negative spiral. Now Scholz‘ government, the self-proclaimed „progressive coalition“ of Social Democrats (SPD), Greens (B90/Grüne) and Liberals (FDP) finally imploded.
“Anyone who orders leadership from me will get it,” Olaf Scholz once said. That is apparently not what happened. In November 2024, 72 percent of citizens say in a survey made by INSA that they are dissatisfied with the work of Chancellor Scholz. 59 percent even believe that he behaves rather disrespectfully towards citizens. These are disastrous figures. What remains of the coalition are hollow phrases and ambitious wishes, which, although not all entirely wrong, unfortunately crash against the international, economic and political reality. This does not make you look stronger, but weaker. It undermines the economy and morale at home and the already rather battered trust in political leadership. And it also partly explains the rise of more radical parties.
What follows from this? Firstly, and this may come as a surprise, the shrinking of the German comfort zone could from another angle not only be seen as sign of instability and weakness, but as an opportunity. From psychology we know: Those who leave their comfort zone or are forced to leave increase their own scope of experience and action and increase their resilience and flexibility in dealing with challenges and threats. In such an environment policy change is possible and it must come. Germany is a strong country with sufficient means to achieve a fresh start for the economy, for the German infrastructure and a recovery of society.
What we do need is inspiring confidence in Germanys strength, a clear and positive political and economic leadership on the one hand underpinned by concrete and immediately visible policies on the other hand. Less ivory tower, less back and forth, less moralizing, more cut clear results. If the coming government refocus on the hard-working taxpayers, families, the German Mittelstand and farmers, the military and civil defence, and not unnecessarily hinder their lives with regulations and prohibitions, but support them appreciatively again, this refreshing and somewhat conservative turn could indeed herald a new, modern, more self-reliant and positive era for Germany. Not only in words but in deeds.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions or positions of HOSCHKE & CONSORTEN Public Relations GmbH.