Arvid Jurjaks
Freelance journalist
Germany
The days are gone when German politics was dominated by two main forces: the Christian Democratic Union (CDU/CSU) and the Social Democrats (SPD). In the 1970s, they controlled over 90 percent of the vote. But their dominance has since eroded, and their grip on the electorate has weakened.
Fifty years later, Germany’s party system, once one of Europe’s most stable, has transformed dramatically. And as the country heads for a snap election, uncertainty is high—not only about the outcome but also whether a majority can be formed to govern. Many parties want a slice of the pie, and there are more of them than ever before.
Back in 1972, when Germany’s two Volksparteien were at their peak, voters had just seven parties to choose from. Three made it to the Bundestag. In the last election 2021, 43 parties competed, and six crossed the five percent threshold needed for seats in the parliament. The youngest in this group, the right-wing populist Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), secured its place for the second time. Eleven years after its founding, AfD has established itself as part of the political map, despite its increasingly radical positions on immigration, ethnicity, and national identity, which have made it impossible for other parties to work with so far.
In several regions, local AfD organizations are classified as “proven right-wing extremists” by Germany’s domestic intelligence service, while on the federal level, the party is under investigation as suspected extremist.
Despite this, AfD has had significant impact on both policy and political culture in Germany. CDU and its Bavarian sister party, CSU, are attempting to lure back right-wing voters with stricter immigration policies and a strengthened focus on identity politics. The CDU's new policy program, adopted in 2024, highlights the need for a German Leitkultur—a guiding culture that emphasizes the nation’s language, history, and customs to bolster German identity.
SPD has also taken a harder stance on immigration. In a much-discussed issue of Der Spiegel in the fall of 2023, Chancellor Olaf Scholz was featured on the cover with the headline, “It’s time to finally start large-scale deportations”.
While AfD may be the most prominent newcomer in terms of voter support and influence on discourse, it’s far from the only one.
After much speculation, Germany saw the emergence of a new party in January 2024: Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), named after its founder and leader, Sahra Wagenknecht. BSW quickly became a key force, competing with AfD to dominate the debate leading into critical state elections in Saxony, Thuringia, and Brandenburg this fall.
Wagenknecht, a former leader of the Left Party (Die Linke) and one of Germany’s most charismatic politicians, seized on an issue resonating with many Germans: peace in Ukraine. Due to Germany’s unique relationship with Russia, many voters are sceptical to the government’s policy on Ukraine. Additionally, a considerable number of Germans are genuinely concerned about being drawn into the conflict. Wagenknecht’s program, which combines calls to halt German arms shipments to Ukraine with anti-imperialist attitude towards the West and the U.S., has struck a nerve.
Her economic platform draws on classic left-wing redistribution policies, alongside a protectionist and conservative approach to industry and labor. This is also reflected in her stricter immigration policies.
Her message has particularly resonated in the eastern parts of the country, where skepticism toward the West German elite that has dominated the country’s leadership, has so far only been expressed through support for AfD.
Wagenknecht’s appeal was evident in the September 2024 state elections, where BSW received 11.8 percent in Saxony, 15.8 percent in Thuringia, and 13.48 percent in Brandenburg.
Since none of the major parties are willing to work with AfD—which made significant gains and became the largest party in Thuringia—they have turned to BSW to form a government. Wagenknecht has leveraged this position to push for a shift in Germany’s Ukraine policy. In coalition talks at the regional level, she also damenaded halting the deployment of American intermediate-range missiles on German soil. Both are federal matters. Instead, regional party organizations now find themselves not only negotiating these topics to appease BSW, but also running the risk of getting in conflict with party policy laid out in Berlin. As of this writing, the outcome of these negotiations is still unclear.
In other states, established parties have also joined forces with newer, regional parties. In Bavaria, the Freie Wähler have governed with the CSU since 2018, with seats in Saxony and Rhineland-Palatinate’s parliaments as well. In Bremen, the right-wing populist Bürger in Wut won 9.4 percent of the vote in 2023.
The fragmented party landscape was also evident in the European Parliament elections, where a record fourteen German parties secured seats.
Research points clearly to a trend: Germany is moving toward a so called highly fragmented party system, where numerous parties in parliament hold significant seats. Countries like Finland, Latvia, Poland, and Sweden are already operating in such systems.
This does not make these countries “ungovernable”—a term often used in Germany as new parties gain ground. But for Germany, this is a new and unfamiliar situation as the country approaches a snap election for the fourth time in history.
Mr. Jurjaks has published on regular basis in the Swedish newspapers Svenska Dagbladet and Sydsvenskan.