Research Fellow
Non-resident Fellow
On Wednesday, 6 November 2024, Europeans woke up to the news that Donald Trump had won the presidential election in the United States. Later the same day, Germany’s government coalition collapsed, as Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz decided to sack Finance Minister Christian Lindner over insuperable differences in fiscal, economic and social policy, leading to the exit of Lindner’s Liberal Democratic Party from the government and leaving Chancellor Scholz without a majority in the parliament. From a European security perspective a dramatic day, with two of Ukraine’s largest military supporters embroiled in domestic political uncertainty.
Government collapse in Germany is rare. The last time a government coalition did not make it until the end of its legislature period was nearly 20 years ago, in 2005, as Scholz’ social democratic predecessor Gerhard Schröder miscalculated the risks of triggering snap elections and lost, resulting in Angela Merkel’s 16-year-reign as Chancellor. But the currently anticipated change in power, in all likelihood back to the Christian Democratic Union, can be an opportunity to redefine Germany’s role in European security in the post-Merkel era.
The coalition under Chancellor Scholz had been plagued by infighting over incompatible policy goals and lack of flexibility to compromise from the start, which affected the recalibration of Germany’s new political equilibrium after Merkel’s exit from the scene. The conflicting views of the coalition parties often manifested themselves also in foreign and security policy as conflicting and confusing statements from the Chancellery, the Foreign Minister and the Defence Minister. The lack of unity on crucial topics such as support for Ukraine or implementation of Germany’s own defence policy transformation, the so-called Zeitenwende that Chancellor Scholz proclaimed in a speech days after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, contributed to uncertainty about the right course of action among German voters and thereby paved the way for political parties from the fringes to challenge official policies. Consequently, in the state-level elections in three eastern German states Thuringia, Brandenburg, and Saxony, the far-right AfD and a new populist party BSW coming in second and third – or first, in the case of Thuringia. The BSW made its critical stance towards Germany’s support for Ukraine a major election topic and succeeded. On the federal level, the AfD is currently polling second after the Christian Democrats, having surpassed the Social Democrats. The coalition-building promises to become a difficult exercise.
Angela Merkel left a vacuum in Germany’s political leadership that the Scholz government was unable to fill. Scholz’ promise to continue a Merkelian line failed to bring stability as Merkel’s own policies became subject to new scrutiny, given the state she had left Germany in: dependent on Russian energy for the competitiveness of its economy, the armed forces “lacking everything” according to the Parliamentary Commissioner for the Armed Forces, and both digital and physical infrastructure in a dire state. Germany needed a new direction, and the Scholz government failed to give it.
The incoming government has a lot of damage control efforts to make after Chancellor Scholz’ failure to swiftly implement the Zeitenwende and his consistently hesitant approach to supporting Ukraine militarily, costing Ukraine time and lives at many crucial stages of the war. Germany’s leadership in Europe has been based on its economic power, and the Russian full-scale war of aggression against Ukraine has made clear that Germany is not ready to take on a leadership role in European security. This was painfully reflected in Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s recent decision to consult with France, the United Kingdom, the Nordic and Baltic countries, but not with Germany, after the US elections.
The near future will be defined by a dramatically deteriorated security environment in Europe. Ukraine’s fate, and with it also Europe’s fate, is at stake. With Trump back in the White House, it will be up to the Europeans to rise to the occasion. Supporting Ukraine and standing up to Russia potentially without American leadership is an unprecedented task for European countries. Germany’s contribution to the effort is crucial, but the new government will be confronted with the reality that Germany might have to follow the lead of others instead of aspiring to take on a leadership role itself. With war on the continent, military capability is equally important for leading Europe as economic power. The German voters need to be convinced first, which the Scholz government failed to do. It is an uphill battle and will take both political courage and a strong moral compass to accomplish.