Theo Notteboom: An emerging ‘Le Havre- Gdańsk range’ in the European container port system

The notions of port system, range and multi-port gateway region 
A port system is a network of two or more ports located close to each other within a specific area. Various spatial and functional scales can be identified, ranging from entire coastlines—such as the West Coast of North America, which can be considered one port system—to concepts like the ‘range’ and the ‘multi-port gateway region’.

Figure 1. Multi-port gateway regions in the European container transport system
Note: Transshipment incidence refers to the share of sea-sea transshipment (container arrives by vessel and leaves by another vessel) in total container traffic handled at the port.

A multi-port gateway region refers to a smaller geographical scale compared to a container port range. The triangles in Figure 1 provide an overview of the multi-port gateway regions in the European container port system. One criterion used to group adjacent container ports into the same multi-port gateway region is their locational relationship to nearby, identical traffic hinterlands. Additionally, the port calling patterns within the liner service networks and the connectivity profiles of the hinterlands can assist in categorizing ports into a multi-port gateway region. A port range refers to a group of container ports located along the same coastline that share a similar inland service area, commonly known as a shared or overlapping hinterland. A widely cited example of this is the Le Havre-Hamburg range in Europe. Within these container port ranges, there is usually intense competition among the ports. A container port range can encompass several multi-port gateway regions. For instance, the Le Havre- Hamburg range includes the multi-port gateway regions of North Germany, the Rhine-Scheldt Delta, and the Seine Estuary in France.

The Tri-City multi-port gateway region in Poland
In container traffic, the Polish ports of Gdańsk and Gdynia can be considered part of the same multi-port gateway region, which we can refer to as the Tri-City multi-port gateway region. This area, known as TrójMiasto in Polish, is located in northern Poland and comprises three neighboring cities: Gdańsk, Gdynia, and Sopot, two of which host large seaports.

The Tri-City multi-port gateway region has generally been considered part of the container port system in the Baltic Sea. Several decades ago, this container port system had very few direct mainline vessel calls operating on the major East-West trade routes, specifically between Europe and the Far East and trans-Atlantic routes. At that time, the region primarily consisted of smaller container ports that relied on larger ports in the Hamburg-Le Havre range to connect with major markets in Asia and North America. This reliance allowed ports like Hamburg and Rotterdam to establish a dominant position as sea-sea transshipment hubs within extensive hub-and-spoke networks, which facilitated the connection between mainline services and feeder ships serving the Baltic region.
However, this situation began to alter about 15 years, significantly influenced by the development of the DCT Gdansk terminal, which was renamed to Baltic Hub in 2023. The deepwater terminal started its operations in 2007. While the terminal specialized in servicing feeder ships during the first years of operation, large container vessels operational on the Europe-Far East trade started calling Gdańsk in early 2010. By 2011, Maersk Emma class container vessels with a capacity of 15,500 TEU became regular visitors of the terminal with a further upgrading to Triple E class vessels with a capacity of 18,000 TEU in 2013. In 2015, the terminal position strengthened to two weekly direct Far East calls: the AE10/Silk service by 2M (Maersk and MSC) and loop 7 by the then operating G6 alliance (APL, Hapag-Lloyd, HMM, MOL, NYK and OOCL). By 2024, the number of direct calls to the Port of Gdańsk had increased to three. Figure 2 illustrates that from 2005 to 2024, Gdańsk successfully raised its number of weekly calls, while most other ports experienced stabilization or decline in call numbers. This decline was partly due to the increasing size of vessels, which now exceed 24,000 TEU on the Europe-Far East route.

The direct connections with Asia significantly boosted container volumes at the terminal, making Gdańsk one of the fastest-growing container ports in Europe. In 2023, the port handled over 2 million TEU, ranking it as the 14th largest container port in Europe by volume. Initially, the terminal relied heavily on sea-to-sea transshipment, with up to 65% of its total volume linked to maritime connections with other Baltic ports. However, in recent years, the share of hinterland gateway cargo has increased considerably, driven by the rapid growth of the East and Central European hinterland regions. To accommodate the rising volumes, the port opened a second deep-water container quay in 2016, and a third extension is set to be completed in 2025. This latest expansion will increase the terminal's capacity to 4.5 million TEU, making it the largest container facility in the Baltic Sea by a significant margin.

Figure 2. Number of weekly container vessel calls on the Europe-Far East trade
The ‘Le Havre-Gdańsk range’ as a new reference range
It was mentioned earlier that the ‘Le Havre-Hamburg range’, a network of ports situated along the coastline between Le Havre (part of HAROPA) in France and Hamburg in Germany, has traditionally been the focus of port competition analysis in northwestern Europe. We argue that, as ports in the southern Baltic region gain prominence, it is becoming increasingly important to expand this range to include Polish ports. In this context, we refer to the area as the "Le Havre-Gdańsk" range.

Figure 3 illustrates the market shares of all ports within the specified range. The spectacular rise of the Tri-City multi-port gateway region since 2009 is clearly evident in the graph. Gdansk and Gdynia combined handled almost 7% of the range’s total throughput, a substantial increase from only 1.8% in 2009. The increasing trend in the line graph for Polish ports sharply contrasts with the situation for the German ports of Hamburg and Bremerhaven.

Figure 3. Ports shares in total container throughput of the Le Havre-Gdansk range (1985-2024, based on TEU)