Elena Valionienė: Baltic seaports’ resilience in the context of cargo flow dynamics

The Baltic Sea ports are an essential part of the European maritime transport network, maintaining a stable market share despite economic and geopolitical changes. Between 2005 and 2022, their share in the EU maritime transport market ranged from 22% to 25%, averaging 24%. This is similar to the North Sea, where the market share averaged 26% over the same period and the link between these regions is strong, as the North Sea hosts major gateway ports distribute cargo to Baltic ports via feeder shipping.

The total cargo volume handled by EU ports has remained relatively stable over the years. The overall change from 2005 to 2022 was just 3%, indicating that the maritime transport sector is resistant to internal economic fluctuations. On average, EU ports handled 7 million tons more cargo each year, with the strongest growth in Mediterranean ports, where annual cargo volumes increased by 4.33 million tons per year The Baltic Sea region had the second-highest growth rate, averaging an annual increase of 2.36 million tons. However, the most intense cargo activity in the Baltic region was observed between 2016 and 2019, before closing due to the COVID-19 pandemic. After this, cargo volumes returned to levels similar to those in 2015. Compared to other maritime regions, such as the Black Sea and the Atlantic Ocean, the Baltic Sea maintained a relatively strong position despite external challenges.

The structure of cargo flows in the Baltic Sea has changed significantly. Liquid bulk cargo volumes have decreased, while dry bulk, containerized, and ro-ro cargo volumes have increased. These factors represent that short shipping tendencies gained intensive growing dynamics. Containerized cargo has shown stable growth, with an averagely annual increase of 1.8 million tons, although this is significantly lower than the Mediterranean, where containerized cargo volumes have risen averagely by 3.37 million tons per year. The share of liquid bulk cargo in Baltic Sea ports dropped from 42% in 2005 to 31% in 2022. Meanwhile, ro-ro cargo expanded from 11% to 17%, and containerized cargo increased from 9% to 13%. Despite EU sanctions on Russian and Belarusian goods, the share of dry bulk cargo in Baltic ports remained stable, excluding some eastern Baltic ports. This resilience highlights the adaptability of ports in Lithuania, Poland, and Germany, which diversified their cargo handling operations to compensate for losses in trade with Russia and Belarus.

Baltic Sea ports have demonstrated significant resilience to external disruptions, including the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical instability. In 2020, ports’ activity temporarily declined due to pandemic-related restrictions, but by 2021, volumes had already surpassed pre-pandemic levels. This suggests that ports, as key components of global supply chains, can adjust quickly to shifting conditions. However, the 2022 geopolitical crisis, particularly the war in Ukraine and the resulting sanctions, led to fluctuations in cargo flows. Despite these challenges, ro-ro cargo continued to grow at an average annual rate of 0.83 million tons. The impact of these changes was not uniform across the Baltic region, as Scandinavian ports maintained relatively stable cargo volumes, while Eastern Baltic ports experienced more pronounced shifts due to their reliance on Russian trade.

Polish and Lithuanian ports have gained the most significant expansion in the Baltic region. The volume of cargo handled in Klaipėda increased by 181% between 2005 and 2022, while Polish ports recorded a 124% rise. These figures indicate substantial growth and structural development in both countries. Additionally, Polish ports have played a crucial role in facilitating bilateral short-sea shipping trade between Baltic ports within the Baltic Sea region.

Cargo volumes exchanged between Polish and Lithuanian ports, as well as other Baltic ports, have grown steadily, reflecting an increase in regional trade flows. Meanwhile, the cargo volume handled between Polish and North Sea ports increased by 90%, while Lithuania recorded a 25% grow in cargo traffic with North Sea ports. In contrast, Estonian and Latvian ports have experienced a relative decline in cargo handling, indicating shifts in the regional distribution of maritime trade. These changes suggest a growing concentration of cargo flows in the southern Baltic region, particularly in Poland and Lithuania, as they strengthen their role as key hubs for Baltic-Baltic short-sea shipping and broader European maritime connections.

The importance of the Baltic-Adriatic (5th TEN-T) transport corridor has grown considerably. Short-sea shipping between Lithuanian and Mediterranean ports increased by 248% between 2005 and 2022, while Polish ports recorded a 197% rise. The most substantial expansion was seen in Denmark, where short-sea shipping volumes with Mediterranean ports grew more than four times. Strengthening these connections allows Baltic ports to compensate for lost trade with Eastern countries involved in geopolitical crisis and ensures the long-term sustainability of cargo flows in the region.

Baltic Sea ports continue to adapt to changing market conditions, reinforcing their role in European maritime trade. Their growing integration with North Sea, Mediterranean transport networks supports long-term stability, helping to balance fluctuations in regional trade. While Scandinavian Baltic ports tend to maintain stable cargo handling level and demonstrating high resistance in the terms of resilience, Eastern and Southern Baltic ports demonstrate faster response and flexibility in responding and adoption to economic and geopolitical challenges. Stronger connections between Baltic ports and other European maritime regions ensure that they remain key players in international trade, capable of withstanding both economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions.