Christian Bueger: Baltic Sea: Grey risks in strategic waters

Over the past two decades, the Baltic Sea has undergone a dramatic transformation. Since the 1990s primarily serving as a shipping corridor, it has evolved into a complex maritime space hosting critical infrastructure that underpins both regional economic development and environmental sustainability. The sea now accommodates expanding offshore wind farms—vital components of the European green energy revolution—and crucial subsea data cables that facilitate international communications and commerce.

However, this infrastructure expansion coincides with mounting environmental challenges. The marine ecosystem faces increasing pressure from shipping-related pollution and the lingering threat of World War II-era munitions. Infrastructure development and environmental concerns have historically been addressed through robust international cooperation, primarily through organizations like the Council of Baltic Sea States (CBSS) and the Helsinki Commission (HELCOM). HELCOM's Baltic Sea Action Plan has been particularly instrumental in coordinating environmental protection efforts and promoting sustainable maritime practices across the region.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 disrupted this established framework of regional cooperation. The suspension of CBSS projects marked the beginning of a period characterized by uncertainty and grey-zone conflicts. This new reality was starkly illustrated by a series of mysterious infrastructure incidents starting with the damage to the Nord Stream pipelines in 2022, the sabotage of the Baltic Connector pipelines, as well as cuts of several underwater electricity and communication cables in the region that occurred in autumn 2024.

The implementation of sanctions against Russia's oil trade introduced additional complexities to regional maritime security. The emergence of the "shadow fleet"—aging tankers, often operating without proper insurance—to transport Russian oil has created new safety risks in Baltic waters. This was evidenced by three serious incidents: the engine failures of the Yannis P. and Canis Power in 2023, and a collision involving the Andromeda Star in 2024. These incidents underscored the potential environmental and security threats posed by this development.

In response to these challenges, a new wave of regional cooperation is emerging, albeit with a stronger focus on security. Sweden and Finland's NATO membership has strengthened Nordic defense integration, while Germany has established a new naval NATO headquarters for the Baltic Sea. Poland's 2024 proposal for enhanced naval coordination among Baltic states represents another step toward collective maritime security. NATO and the EU have put renewed emphasis on maritime security with a particular focus on underwater infrastructures, information sharing and the coordination of operational responses.

The successful handling of the cable cuts attributed to the Y Peng 3 in November 2024 demonstrated the potential effectiveness of this evolving cooperative framework. However, questions remain about the optimal structure for regional governance. The overlapping mandates of NATO, the EU, and the Baltic Council require careful coordination to avoid institutional conflicts and ensure effective responses to both traditional and emerging maritime challenges.

Looking ahead, the Baltic Sea's stability remains intrinsically linked to the resolution of the Ukraine conflict. The region faces dual imperatives: advancing crucial green energy infrastructure while managing security risks. This tension was evident when security concerns led Sweden to cancel a significant cross-border wind energy infrastructure project, highlighting the complex balance between green economic development and strategic considerations in the current geopolitical environment.

The Baltic Sea's future as a vital economic corridor and green energy hub depends on the region's ability to develop effective mechanisms for protecting critical infrastructure while maintaining environmental standards in an increasingly complex security landscape.