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Aleksander Panasiuk & Halyna Zubrytska: Future of tourism in Ukraine after the end of the war
















Aleksander Panasiuk
Ph.D., Professor, Director of Institute of Entrepreneurship, Head of Tourism and Sport Management Department
Jagiellonian University
Krakow, Poland
aleksander.panasiuk@uj.edu.pl

Halyna Zubrytska
M.Sc., International Relations Specialist
International Relations Office, CEU University - Cardenal Herrera
Valencia, Spain

Despite the ongoing war in the eastern regions of Ukraine, Russian pressure on Ukrainian cities and the occupation of Crimea, the plans of the Ukrainian government in consultation with foreign partners to rebuild the country's economy after the end of the war are continuing. Based on the current situation, it is not possible to determine the date and area scope of starting the reconstruction plan. Considering Ukraine's efforts to return to the borders from 2014, economic reconstruction plans, including the tourist economy, should cover the entire territory of Ukraine. Tourism is one of the sectors of the Ukrainian economy that was most affected by the war. More than one third of tourist facilities are occupied, robbed, or completely destroyed. Despite the war, domestic tourism in Ukraine has not completely lost its position, tourist traffic takes place in the relatively safe western regions of Ukraine. Internationally, Ukraine cannot be considered a safe tourist destination. After the victory, Ukraine has every chance to attract tourists from all over the world, declaring itself a safe and attractive tourist destination and, moreover, a country of heroes that won an unjust war with international support.

Before Russia began its aggression against Ukraine, the country attracted tourists with its historical, cultural and natural attractions, and the main centers of international tourism in Ukraine were: Kiev, Lviv, Odessa, the Crimean Peninsula, and the Ukrainian part of the Carpathians. Crimea was the most popular resort, accounting for over 30% of the country's total reactionary tourism potential. The basis for the decisions of foreign tourists, mainly from Europe, were the affordable price level, hospitality and safety. The dominant themes were cultural, recreational, family, ethnic, nature, sports and health tourism in numerous health resorts.

To synthetically assess the state of Ukraine's tourism economy, it is necessary to refer to the level of market development before the invasion in 2022 and at the same time before the pandemic period, i.e. to the realities of 2019. In the second decade of the 21st century, the share of the tourism economy in Ukraine was estimated at 7% of GDP and 1.2 million jobs. Revenues from tourism amounted to USD 3.6 billion per year. During this period, the number of tourist arrivals from abroad (stays with at least one night) was constantly decreasing from approximately 1.2 million in 2011, through approximately 0.5 million in 2013, 0.15 million in the year of the annexation of Crimea, and in the following years it recorded further declines. The largest tourist traffic was generated by citizens of neighboring countries, including Moldova, Belarus, Russia and Poland. A significant share in incoming tourism also concerned: Turkey, Israel, Germany, the USA and Great Britain. The main reasons for the decline in the attractiveness of Ukraine for foreign tourists were: (1) The annexation of Crimea by Russia and military operations in eastern Ukraine. (2) Information war against Ukraine, which has generated false narratives about Ukraine in the world community, including: high level of corruption, lack of an independent justice system, illegal takeover of power and management of the country by neo-Nazis, (3) Insufficient development of tourist infrastructure, lack of high quality hotel services, low transport accessibility, (4) Continuous reorganization and change of subordination of Ukrainian authorities implementing tourism policy and insufficient activities in the field of tourism marketing.

The end of hostilities in the near or long term will constitute the basis for rebuilding the economy, of which tourism is an important element. The key issue for incoming foreign tourism will be safety. The basis for guaranteeing security and development will be building a democratic society and deepening integration with the European Union, including the possibility of using pre-accession funds, as well as joining NATO. Tourism can become an important element of revitalizing the country's economy and opening it to the world. Attention should be paid to the possibility of shaping the development of tourism in the post-war period in a different way in places not affected by extensive military operations, such as Kiev, Lviv, Odessa and the Ukrainian Carpathians, which will probably be able to regain their position on the tourist market at a faster pace, provided they are convinced of the appropriate level of safety and condition of the tourist offer. In the longer term, the reconstruction of the tourist economy will concern especially Crimea and Donbas. It will be necessary to develop the state's socio-economic infrastructure and implement a marketing policy affecting the tourist image of the entire state and tourist centers. Ukraine, as a large construction site, has a chance to become a business tourism destination. In the long term, Ukraine, as a candidate and then after meeting the conditions for accession as an EU member, will be able to become a fully European tourist destination.