Matti Maasikas
Principal Advisor on Strategic Issues
European External Action Service
Brussels, Belgium
Matti.MAASIKAS@eeas.europa.eu
When President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on the 5th day of the full scale war signed Ukraine´s application to join the EU, he achieved more than just opening the door for his own country.
Before February 24th, 2022 there was no willingness whatsoever in most of the EU capitals even to discuss opening the EU´s membership perspective beyond the Western Balkans countries. Russia´s invasion changed that, the EU rose to the occasion and Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia are now EU´s candidates.
The process with 7 EU recommendations that were linked with the 2022 European Council decision to grant candidate status to Ukraine is a good showcase for a merit based, motivating enlargement path. The recommendations were strictly speaking not meant to open a way for next steps but merely to underpin the candidate status. Instead, the Ukrainian leadership´s determination in implementing the recommendations, supported by smart but insistent diplomacy gradually shifted the mood and positions in Brussels and EU Member States´ capitals. By the fall of 2023, it was all natural that the full implementation of the recommendations is the precondition for the next step, opening of the accession negotiations – as was then decided by EU leaders last December.
This offers two valuable lessons. First, the motivation in an enlargement country is key to any progress on its EU path. Second, the motivation indeed must be supported and encouraged by the commitment on the side of the EU. Successful enlargement process takes two to tango. The Central and Eastern European countries learned this well in 1990ies. We felt that the EU really wants new members, that the wind of history is in our sails, that we are reuniting the continent that had for too long been divided by the Iron Curtain.
After the 5th enlargement round, the process slowed down. Whatever the particular circumstances or reasoning in Brussels, in EU Member States or in any particular enlargement country, the decrease of motivation both on the EU´s side and in the enlargement countries has meant that the accession train has moved very slowly over the last 10 years.
It would be tempting to say You know well what needs to be done, the EU law, acquis communautaire, is publicly available, implement it - and then we take our steps. But it just doesn´t work like that. The enlargement countries need to see and feel that the EU really wants new members and is ready to engage – with funds, advice, but most importantly, politically. It may be surprising, but there are still politicians in those relatively poor and small enlargement countries who would rather go on being the big fish in their small ponds, using all possible arguments to convince their electorate that "the EU just does not want us.“
One may ask what´s so terribly wrong with this situation? Isn´t it true that the EU has more burning challenges to address, from the war in Ukraine to irregular migration to rebuilding its economy´s competitiveness? Isn´t it true that the EU supports the enlargement countries with billions of euros yearly anyway? Isn´t it true that nobody from outside can conduct reforms, adopt laws in a sovereign country? All of it is true but it misses the bigger point. Namely that grey zones at EU´s borders are simply not in EU´s interests. These zones tend to be open for malign interference from outside powers, willing to invest in painting the grey zones red. Ukraine that was lacking any membership perspective until 2022 and is now under a full scale military invasion is the most telling case in point but the tensions in the Western Balkans region and within the countries there - often foreign-incited - are clearly visible as well.
Therefore, a reinvigoration to EU´s enlargement policy is a must, and Zelenskyy´s audacious move back in February 2022 opened the door for this reinvigoration. The enlargement policy is prominent again, and the EU is preparing itself for next steps.
The European Commission is working on an assessment of the impact of the next enlargement on EU´s policies. This is crucial to mitigate fears of future unhealthy competition that we are seeing already at Ukraine´s borders with Poland – fears that resemble the anxieties for the "Polish plumber“ 20 years ago.
Another crucial element is leaving bilateral political issues out of the accession process. The EU must collectively rise to the occasion, the EU institutions and Member States alike.
But most important is to upgrade the EU´s offer by giving the enlargement policy new prominence, to increase reform-related, smartly conditioned assistance to enlargement countries and to rethink some aspects of the procedures of the process in Brussels. This would prove to the enlargement countries that the EU means business, that their efforts pay off and the EU´s door is open. Pushed open again by President Zelenskyy in the darkest hour for Europe since World War II.
The author writes in a personal capacity.