Andrius Kubilius
MEP, Former Prime Minister of Lithuania
Lithuania
The decision of the European Council last December to open accession negotiations for Ukraine’ EU membership is of particular historical significance because Ukraine's accession to the EU fundamentally changes the long-term development perspective of the whole European continent.
The enlargement process of the EU depends largely on the political will of the European Union itself: in the late 1990s, the EU negotiations with the Central European and Baltic countries lasted just 3-4 years and were fruitful, while the integration process of the Western Balkans, which began almost 20 years ago, is not moving at all, because the EU has declared that it is "tired of enlargement" and no longer has a "hunger for enlargement".
Ukraine's integration process can and must bring back to the EU the "hunger for enlargement". The strategic importance of such an enlargement for the EU should be made clear by Russia's war against Ukraine, which started two years ago. Lasting peace on the European continent can only be achieved if the EU's efforts fulfill two essential conditions: a) that the EU has the political will to provide sufficient military support to Ukraine, and b) that the EU has the political will to do all it can to ensure that Ukraine becomes a member of the EU by 2030.
There are three main reasons why the European Union should see Ukraine's membership by 2030 as its key strategic objective:
1. The only way to build Ukraine's economic success
The history of the successful economic development over the last two decades of the Central European and Baltic countries as EU members is a clear evidence that in the post-Soviet space, economic success can only be created if a country has the potential to become an EU member state and, at the same time, part of the EU's rich Common Market. My country, Lithuania, started negotiations for EU membership in 1999. In 1999, Lithuania's GDP per capita in PPP terms was only 36% of the EU average. After Lithuania became the EU member in 2002, its economic development has been so rapid that nowadays the same indicator of Lithuania's economic development already reaches 90% of the EU average.
Ukraine's economic development is now only at the level Lithuania had reached in 1999: Ukraine's GDP/capita in PPP terms is now only 36% of the EU average. For various geopolitical reasons, largely beyond Ukraine's control, the country has not been able to join the European Union at a time when the Central European and Baltic States have successfully followed this path. This has led to the current enormous economic gap between Ukraine and Central Europe. However, it is necessary to remember that Ukraine in the 1990s was equal in economic development to its neighboring Poland. There is a clear evidence that if Ukraine were to become a member of the EU, it would very quickly replicate the path of Central European successful economic development. This means that over the next 20 years upon becoming an EU member, Ukraine would practically catch up with the EU's average level of economic development. It also means that EU businesses investing in the economy of Ukraine, as an EU member state, would have made huge profits and increased the value of their investments several times over 20 years. An economically wealthy Ukraine would also increase the EU's own economic power. And of course, an economically successful Ukraine, as a member of the EU, would extend European success and stability far to the East. This would also be a clear strategic benefit for the EU.
2. Elimination of security grey areas on the European continent
One of the reasons why Putin decided to wage the war against Ukraine was that the West had for decades left Ukraine in a "security grey area" with no clear prospects of becoming a member of the EU or NATO. This created a temptation for Putin to believe that the West would not defend Ukraine, leaving it in Russia's "zone of interests".
Today it is clear that peace and security on the European continent can only be realized when Russia ceases to be a source of neo-imperialist aggression. There is a famous quote by Z. Brzezinski that Russia, which has the opportunity to control Ukraine, will always remain an empire, and only Russia, which loses this opportunity, will have the chance to become a normal European state. Ukraine's accession to the EU is therefore also important in the sense that it will remove one of the most dangerous "security grey areas" on the European continent. This will also, in the long term, help Russia to become a normal state. Achieving such a change on the European continent should be the EU most important long-term strategic objective.
3. An inspiration for change in the wider post-Soviet East
After the 1990s, the post-Soviet space, separated for decades from the democratic Western world by the Iron Curtain, is undergoing huge transformation: the values of democracy and the European rule of law are slowly but surely spreading from the western fringes of this space to the eastern side, still riddled with authoritarianism and underdevelopment. Central Europe and the Baltic States at the beginning, now Ukraine and Moldova and Georgia (Sakartvelo) are following the same path. Armenia is rushing to follow the example, since it is attractive and contagious, because it is the only way to create success in the post-Soviet space.
By helping Ukraine to become a member of the EU and thus a successful country, the European Union will also inspire positive change in the populations of Russia and Belarus, South Caucasus and Central Asia, who also want to live in their own normal countries. The window of opportunity for the EU to make such an impact on a broad region has a very clear name: "Ukraine's success". And such an Ukrainian success can only be created by the European Union realising the ambitious plan of "Ukraine becoming a member of the EU".