Pekka Toveri
Major General (retired)
Member of the Finnish Parliament
pekka.toveri@parliament.fi
As the Russian aggression and attack on Ukraine moves to its third year, it has become very clear that President Putin has not given up his ambitions. He still aims to stop Ukraine´s integration to Western Europa and make Ukraine Russia´s vassal state. Final aim seems to be to destroy Ukraine as culture, language, and nation. Since the war has not been too successful for Russia so far, hurting its economy and military very hard, Putin may be willing to accept some delay in his plans. A temporary peace in Putin´s terms would give Russia time to rebuild its military force and prepare for a new offensive in suitable time.
The acceptable terms would probably mean area concessions from Ukraine, restrictions on the size and capabilities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and a Ukraine´s neutral status without integration to EU or NATO. This would be only a temporary peace aiming to give Russia time to recover from the huge losses it has encountered during the war and to continue to isolate Ukraine from its Western supporters through hybrid operations especially on the information sphere. Same time the seeds of the next war would be spread, because even a limited win would empower Putin and his closest supporters. They would see the West´s actions as signs of weakness and as permission to handle the Ukraine issue as Kreml wants.
All this would be a grave mistake from the Western leaders. Conquering Ukraine some years later would just empower the Russian leadership to challenge West directly. In Putin´s mind, there is really an ideological war going on between the West and Russia, and the real threat to his regime are the western values, such as personal freedoms, democracy, functioning independent legal system etc. To weaken the West is what Putin craves, Ukraine is only a sidestep. Russia wants to dominate the Europe and it wants to have a European security system without USA.
Therefore, the only way to have lasting peace in Europe, is to support Ukraine so that it can push Russian armed forces from its areas, followed by integration of Ukraine not only to the Western democratic values and systems, but also to our economic and defence systems through membership in EU and NATO. That would show Russia that the Ukraine´s eastern border is the limit of Russia´s power, and that challenging that border would come at cost that Russia couldn´t afford.
Since Russia doesn´t hesitate to use military power to reach its aims, crucial part of that Ukraine´s integration will be the military integration. Whether the war ends to Russian withdrawal or temporary peace on Russian terms, Ukrainian armed forces will probably emerge from the war as the most battle hardened and experienced force in Europe. It´s size will make it probably even after de-mobilization one of the biggest if not the biggest in Europe, and it will be supported by very strong and innovative domestic defence industry with capability to produce high-technology systems and weapons.
Integration of Ukraine´s Armed Force to NATO would be mutually beneficial. Ukraine could get the needed support to train its forces and leaders capable to conduct complex joint operations and combined arms combat in fluid fast moving operations. NATO could learn how to fight the Russian forces and weapon systems and how to fight the tactical fight in modern demanding battlefield infested with electronic warfare capabilities, mines, artillery, and drones. NATO could help Ukraine to build modern Navy and Air Force and Ukraine could teach NATO how to utilize Uncrewed Surface Vessels and other innovative technologies in modern naval operations plus how to defend against complex missile and drone attacks.
With Western support Ukraine could become the military power of Europe, which Russia couldn´t ignore when planning to challenge West. Ukraine in NATO would mean that the strategic balance in Black Sea region would tilt strongly to NATO´s favour. Same way as the Finnish and soon following Swedish NATO membership has changed the strategic balance in Baltic Sea strongly against Russia. This would force, if not Putin, at least his follower, to accept that Russia´s possibilities to challenge West are very limited and hopefully it would guarantee long lasting peace.
Integrating Ukrainian Armed Forces would be a huge task. The mere size of the force combined with some old Soviet style structures and culture are big challenges. On the other hand, many of the Ukrainian officers and NCO´s have already been trained by NATO armies. Ukrainian military has also learned to use modern Western weapon systems during the war and Ukrainians have shown to be fast learners. And what is most important, the Ukrainian military is willing to change. Naturally this would be a two-way street. There is also lot that NATO armies can learn from the Ukrainians. Faster the integration happens, the better. Ukraine in NATO will make Europe safer.