Wojciech Gizicki: Poland's security geopolitics in crisis times in 2025

Poland’s security results from its geopolitical situation. This fact holds regarding every historical period Poland has gone through. Located in Central Europe, between Germany and Russia, its East-West route brings certain opportunities but also challenges. This is fundamentally important today in light of Russia's neo-imperial, aggressive policies, the war in Ukraine, and the hybrid conflict on the border with Belarus.

Russia is striving to reclaim its position from the Soviet Union era, both for global significance and territorial resources. After 1945, Poland formally remained a sovereign international entity. Despite its close political and military dependence on the USSR, it was not, however, a Soviet satellite state. In this way, its contemporary geopolitical position is somewhat different than, for example, Ukraine, Belarus, Georgia, the Baltic states, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. These countries constitute the so-called near abroad, which is Vladimir Putin's primary political and military objective. This does not change the fact that Poland, a large country in Central Europe with considerable geopolitical significance, poses a serious obstacle to Russia achieving its neo-imperial ambitions. A particular message on this was the words of the late Lech Kaczyński, former President of Poland, who died in the unexplained Smoleńsk catastrophe in 2010. Addressing a delegation of leaders from Central and Eastern European countries (Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Ukraine) during the 2008 conflict in Georgia, Lech Kaczyński in Tbilisi told them: Some believe the nations around them should be subordinate to them. We say no! That country is Russia. (...) And we also know perfectly well that today it's Georgia, tomorrow Ukraine, the day after tomorrow the Baltic States, and then perhaps it's time for my country, Poland! Hence, solidarity among the region’s countries and strong cooperation within relations with the US, NATO, and the EU are crucial. For geopolitical reasons (its location, size, and population), Poland can and should play a leadership role in this cooperation, in the spirit of Primus inter pares. Experiences in the last few years, recent months, and even days show the seriousness of the threat looming over this region, especially on Poland’s side closest to Russia. Already in September 2025, Poland’s airspace was violated several times by Russian unmanned aerial vehicles, most likely flying in from Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine. These are no longer individual incidents. On September 10,  2025, several such objects entered Poland’s territory and were shot down by Poland’s air defense. This is Poland’s first time using such military resources to counteract a very serious provocation. As a consequence, NATO is also involved through the invocation of Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty. Poland's decisive military response demonstrates its absolute refusal to accept these provocations, which constitute a complete crossing of the "red line."

An independent, sovereign Ukraine is an important element of Poland’s security. Nevertheless, the full-scale war in Ukraine that started in 2022 is a serious challenge for Poland. This is due to Poland's long border with Ukraine (535 km). Poland is experiencing the consequences of this war, both directly and indirectly. On November 15, 2022, in Przewodowo (eastern Poland), rocket fragments exploded as part of Ukraine's defensive operations against Russian shelling. Two Poles (civilians) died as a result. However, Poland unequivocally stands with Ukraine, providing multifaceted support. This support has both a military dimension, in the form of equipment and defense logistics, and a social dimension. Since the beginning of the war, Poland has provided unconditional assistance to several million war refugees. In 2025, there are over one million registered Ukrainian refugees in Poland. The territory of Poland is the main and basically only region supporting the auxiliary activities for Ukraine. Without the Rzeszów airport and the A4 motorway, such large-scale defense assistance would be essentially impossible. The ongoing war in Ukraine has multifaceted implications for Poland. However, Russia is taking numerous actions aimed at escalating potential bilateral problems between Poland and Ukraine. These have both historical and contemporary roots, including the unprecedented scale of Ukrainian refugees in Poland. Good relations between the two countries are in their shared interest. Therefore, it is essential to build mutual relations based on the fullest possible understanding and agreement.

Belarus is a tool in Russia’s hands, subordinated to accomplish Putin’s strategic goals. All nations bordering Belarus are experiencing this situation. For Poland, the hostile policy generated by Alexander Lukashenko has both geopolitical and social dimensions. First of all, the Polish-Belarusian border is the subject of a hybrid war, using illegal migrants as a political weapon. Illegal migrants are regularly transferred onto Polish territory, even forced to break the law, often using force and aggressive behavior. One of the victims of these actions was a Polish soldier serving on the border, who died on June 6, 2024, after being stabbed by an aggressive illegal migrant. Several other soldiers were injured while defending the Polish border against similar hybrid attacks. The increasing wave of illegal border crossings is negatively affecting the feeling and level of security in Poland. This situation is intensifying due to Poland’s overlapping and complex relationship with Germany, also along the border. Controversies are taking place in relation to German services sending illegal migrants into Poland, supposedly ones who trespassed the German border from the Polish side. Also, Belarus supports Russia, and their joint Zapad military exercises and Russia’s hybrid actions have resulted in the decision to close Poland’s border with Belarus as of September 11, 2025. Second, Poland pays the price on the social level due to the anti-Polish activities of the Belarusian regime, targeting people and institutions of Polish origin. Some Poles in Belarus are experiencing persecution and even imprisonment (e.g. Andrzej Poczobut). Activities that maintain Polish traditions and rituals are hampered.

Therefore, Poland must constantly strengthen its security. This is a multidimensional, complex activity that must take into consideration the degree of our geopolitical condition. The success of our work primarily depends on the connectivity and efficiency of those leading our uniformed services. Citizens themselves must also take on significant responsibilities, as they must be able to meet these challenges and skillfully respond to threats. Finally, it is essential to maintain close allied cooperation, particularly within NATO and the United States.