Urpo
Kivikari
Professor
Emeritus of International Economics
Turku
School of Economics
Finland
Ten years ago – shortly before the unpredictable and aggressive Russia attacked Ukraine – I publicly put forward the idea of Ukraine as the “the Switzerland of Eastern Europe”. I believed, naively and referring to many kinds of evidence, that a democratic Ukraine outside any Western alliances and protected by definite international security guarantees could be an acceptable alternative for Ukraine itself, for the West and also for Russia.
Ukraine might never have accepted such a status. However, in any case, the decisive factor turned out to be that due to Russia, which has proven to be a completely unreliable party to any agreement and a ruthless aggressor, Ukraine can only develop into a democratic state governed by the rule of law as a member of the EU and NATO.
The road to the membership of alliances is long and winding. If two NATO member states, Turkey and Hungary, have managed to delay the accession of the fully NATO-compliant Sweden, we can hardly imagine the kinds of delays and obstacles Ukraine will face.
Ukraine’s political, social and economic development will re-commence once the country returns to peace. Only time will tell when and how this will happen. Settling for any kind of temporary peace is not possible; what is needed is lasting stability that will guarantee Ukraine’s viability as a state, secure its borders and ensure support from international politics.
The country’s physical reconstruction and the development of its institutions to meet the requirements of the EU and NATO will require huge efforts from both Ukraine and the two alliances preparing for its membership. One can be certain that many non-EU and non-NATO democracies and international organisations will also come to Ukraine’s aid.
And what about the root of all evil, Russia, guilty of countless war crimes? Russia has hardly ever met its responsibility for the damage it has caused; quite the contrary, it has made the innocent opponent pay for the costs of the war. As an innocent victim of the Winter War of 1939-40, Finland had to agree to cede parts of its territory and, after the end of the Second World War, pay heavy war reparations.
According to Russia’s narrative, the country’s legacy of the wars it has been involved in only consists of heroic deeds. Eastern European countries were severely disciplined and exploited by the Soviet Union for decades. It will not be a bad solution for Ukraine if Russia is successfully kept apart from the country’s future development.
For the EU Member States, Ukraine’s membership preparations and actual membership will mean a major re-direction of financing flows. Almost all net recipients of EU funds will become payers, which will definitely influence the realisation of Ukraine’s membership. Non-financial rules and practices also need to be reformed.
In connection with previous expansions, the EU has been far too trusting, even gullible, in accepting the status of new Member States as “democratic states governed by the rule of law”. At the turn of the 1990s, Hungary called its preparations for the transition “Blue Ribbon”, once held by the fastest transatlantic ocean liner. Indeed, Hungary’s Ship of State moved faster than its peers from socialism to democracy and capitalism and earned its imaginary ribbon.
Twenty years later, from 2010 onwards, Hungary’s position began to change radically. The country’s development with regard to democracy, the rule of law and the media environment has been in a downward spiral. Confrontations with the EU are commonplace. Hungary is generally opposed to assisting Ukraine and is the only EU country to openly present itself as a friend of Putin and Russia.
Once established, liberal democracy is not something that continues to exist without any effort but rather a delicate system that requires constant vigilance and reinforcement. Perhaps the EU will come to fully understand this and set requirements, for both new and old Member States, that in practice correspond better with the EU’s values and practices.
Among the member states of NATO, Ukraine’s bid to join the alliance is probably of particular interest to Turkey, which is located across the Black Sea from Ukraine. If Georgia’s long road to NATO leads the country to its intended destination, the Black Sea would become a NATO sea like the Baltic Sea, with the exception of the Russian coastal area. This is hardly what Russia expected from its so-called special military operation in Ukraine.