Olena Snigyr
Senior Fellow
Eurasia Program, Foreign Policy
Research Institute
USA
Jean Monnet Fellow
Robert Schuman Center for Advanced
Studies, European University Institute
Italy
One often hears assertions that Russia has already lost by initiating a full-scale war with Ukraine or will inevitably face defeat in the future. Some argue that Russia lost Ukraine in 2014 when it occupied and annexed Crimea. However, this conclusion may be rooted more in wishful thinking than an accurate assessment of the situation.
The Russian authorities perceive victory and defeat through different lenses than the West. Following the shock of full-scale aggression against Ukraine, a subsequent realization might be that Putin's claim — that "everything goes according to plan" — holds some truth. The failures of the Russian military campaign in Ukraine could be seen as tactical loses rather than strategic defeats, considering that Ukraine might not be the ultimate goal for the Russian leadership in this conflict, and especially given that the course of this war directly affects the balance of power in the competition between the democratic and authoritarian world for what the new world order will be.
Since at least 2007, Putin has expressed intentions to reshape the world order based on Western rules and to divide the world into spheres of influence. In this envisioned order, international relations won't be governed by international law but by the "balance of power," making war a routine method for achieving foreign policy goals.
The West's restrained approach to providing military aid to Ukraine has inadvertently played into Putin's hands. The West's belief that it is exhausting Russia in the conflict may be misplaced; in reality, Ukraine is bearing the brunt, and Russia is swiftly adapting and preparing for future conflicts. War has become integral to the ideology and existence of the Russian regime, sustaining high ratings and legitimacy through constant acts of aggression against external "enemies." Even if the West were to consider Russian security concerns and adjust NATO's borders, Putin's Russia seems poised to engage in new wars.
Accepting the reality of NATO soldiers potentially facing Russians on the battlefield remains challenging for Western countries. In contrast, Russian society has long accepted this inevitability, with Russian schools teaching children that people in Western countries are their enemies. The Russian authorities have identified the West, not Ukraine, as Russia's main enemy. Russia's overarching geopolitical goal is the domination of the entire European continent.
The full-scale war with Ukraine has provided the Russian army with combat experience that NATO forces lack. Russia has realigned its economy, information policy, and propaganda to wartime needs. The quick authoritarian decision-making system and societal loyalty ensure the stability of the Russian political system. Additionally, Russia has allies providing military, technological, and economic support. Moscow's initiation of a new war hinges on a victory over Ukraine or the freezing of the ongoing conflict. Consequently, as long as hostilities persist, Russia is unlikely to open a second front. However, Ukraine, lacking the necessary weapons, may exhaust its human resources without international support.
The West's capacity to support Ukraine in an increasingly conflict-prone international environment is diminishing. The potential solution lies in consistency and solidarity, not just among Western nations but also involving a broader coalition, including countries from the Global South. However, this seems unlikely due to the erosion of Western leadership. The conflict between Israel and Hamas has heightened anti-Western sentiments in the Global South, driven by allegations of double standards and hypocrisy.
Additionally, the underestimated appeal of conservative, or in the Russian interpretation, traditional values, introduces an unexpected factor into the global context. Russia, in seeking allies, promotes the idea of impunity for authoritarian states, regardless of human rights violations. Russia and China jointly propagate the notion that authoritarian systems can be as stable and successful as liberal democracies. This propaganda resonates globally, with liberal democracy facing challenges. Western democracies are at risk if conflicts and wars escalate, leading to increased migration waves and a surge in external and internal challenges. People expect politicians to prevent crises and address problems without sacrificing living standards. In response, some politicians may offer simplistic solutions to assuage citizens' fears.
Through a prolonged war against Ukraine, Russia is shaping favorable conditions for international politics. Russian resilience sets an example of impunity and the use of war without severe consequences. It is likely that we will witness more wars and conflicts, as the world trends toward a power-based order. Countries globally recognize that military capabilities, including nuclear weapons, are more reliable instruments of security than international law. Moreover, despite assurances, the West seems either unable or unwilling to protect its allies. The next objective for Russia may involve challenging the myth of NATO's unity and effectiveness.
The old world order has vanished, and the competition for a new world order has already started. The Russian-Ukrainian war is not the inaugural battle in this competition, but the big one and the one that the West can still prevail in. If Russia is defeated in Ukraine and does not achieve its goals, the balance in the confrontation between the authoritarian and democratic world will change in favor of the latter. This change may lead to a moderation of geopolitical ambitions among China and other Russian allies, preventing future conflicts and creating favorable conditions for a global dialogue on a renewed world order based on rules rather than power.