Kateryna
Ivashchenko-Stadnik
Dr., Senior Research Fellow
Institute of Sociology, National Academy of Sciences
Ukraine
CARA Fellow
Institute of Advanced Studies, Durham University
UK
Co-author of the book Eight Years After the Revolution of Dignity: What Has
Changed in Ukraine During 2013-2021? (together with Volodymyr Dubrovskyi and Kalman Mizsei), IBIDEM Press, 2024.
katya_iva@yahoo.com
On September 20, 2018, during the presidency of Petro Poroshenko, the Ukrainian parliament approved amendments to the constitution that made the accession of the country to NATO and the EU a central goal and the primary foreign policy objective. In December 2023, after nearly a decade of Russian aggression against Ukraine, EU leaders took a decisive step by formally initiating accession talks with Ukraine. This long-awaited move marked a historic breakthrough, signaling the potential for Ukraine's eventual membership in the European Union. However, it is evident that Ukraine's journey to EU integration won't be swift or uncomplicated. Therefore, the decision is widely perceived as a symbolic gesture, intended to bolster the morale of the Ukrainian people who, in their self-sacrificing resistance, stand firm against Russian expansionist aggression along Europe's closest border.
On the NATO accession front, despite the escalation of Russian aggression leading to Finland, a previously non-aligned country, joining the alliance in 2023, and Sweden's ongoing application process in progress, Ukraine's path to NATO remains uncertain (although in 2024 according to the Global Firepower international company, Ukraine's army has been ranked 18th in the world's most powerful armies, and Ukraine is regarded as one of the most capable potential NATO members). In the July 2023 NATO annual summit in Vilnius, the alliance reaffirmed its position that Ukraine will become a member of NATO, but expediting the process requires a more resolute political commitment from Western decision-makers (and the lack of such commitment remains a significant obstacle). While public and policy talks around Ukraine’s potential NATO membership are fluctuating from optimism to pessimism (as, obviously, the West remains highly responsive to Russia's threats of escalation and currently feels no comfort in getting Ukraine into NATO), within Ukraine, joining NATO is perceived as the sole means to ensure security in the face of Russian aggression or, at the very least, to prevent its further expansion.
Amidst these uneasy diplomatic developments, it becomes imperative to explore how Ukraine's population attitudes towards geopolitical alliances have evolved over the last two decades, prior to 2014 and during a decade of war. These attitudes not only reflect the quest for security and stability but are also efforts to position Ukraine in the world matrix in terms of values and ideologies. Understanding the dynamics of public sentiment will shed light on the broader context shaping Ukraine's stance amidst ongoing geopolitical shifts.
Despite the widespread preconceptions that the crystallization of pro-EU and pro-NATO aspirations in Ukraine was a result of the Russian predatory policies against Ukraine (which started with the annexation of Crimea and occupation of the parts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in 2014, continued through the next eight years, and escalated since the full-scale aggression in February 2022), Ukraine’s path out of the ‘post-Soviet’ colonial woods has started much earlier than that. While Ukraine continued to contend with the lingering echoes of its geopolitical past, the nation's shifting attitudes toward its connections with the Western world, in contrast to its alliances around Russia, came to the forefront in the 2000s. The Ukrainian Society longitudinal survey data, spanning 2000 to 2022, offers a lens into the changing dynamics of public attitudes that have shaped Ukraine's trajectory on the global stage (see Figure below).
Geo-political attitudes in Ukraine (2000-2022, %)
* For ethical reasons, following the
beginning of Russia's full-scale aggression against Ukraine in 2022, which
included the active involvement of Belarus, the survey did not include a
question measuring attitudes towards the union with these two countries.
** The recent survey conducted by the Kyiv
International Institute of Sociology in May 2023 reveals a continued increase
in support. Presently, 92% and 89% of Ukrainians express the desire to see
Ukraine become a member of the European Union and NATO, respectively.
Traditionally, Ukraine was often perceived through the lens of a divided nation, split along regional ethnolinguistic lines, with the assumption that the Russian-speaking east leaned towards Russia, while the Ukrainian-speaking west sought European and NATO integration. The longitudinal survey data reveals a more nuanced reality, dispelling the myth of a deeply divided Ukraine. Covering the period from 2000 to 2022, the data shifts the narrative away from traditional dichotomies and highlights three key trends that, despite differing in pace and depth, apply to all regions of Ukraine.
First, after 2013 the once-popular idea of Ukraine joining a union with Russia and Belarus experienced a significant decline in all regions, including east and south. Pro-Russian sentiments, measured by support for such a union, plummeted from 56% in 2012 to a mere 19% in 2021. This dip, strategically aligned with Yanukovych's rejection of the EU Association Agreement, signifies a pivotal moment in Ukraine's geopolitical attitudes.
Second, parallel to the decline of "Slavic-partnership" project, pro-EU attitudes have been steadily strong since the early 2000s. With 56% of respondents in favor of Ukraine joining the EU in 2000 and 55% in 2017, the year when a visa-free regime with the EU was introduced, the shares of EU supporters remained robust in most regions (with a temporary drop in 2021 linked to both internal and external factors, including the growing threat of Russian invasion amid a lack of clear and unanimous response from the EU), and increased profoundly after 2022. The dynamics of pro-NATO attitudes, while slower and less straightforward, indicated an increase from 25% in 2000 to 76% in 2022. According to other reliable data sources, this upward trend appears to be continuing.
Third, post-Euromaidan Ukraine witnessed a transformative shift in national identity, challenging past historical affiliations. The survey data indicates a decline in regional divisions and a surge in national self-identification, where political identity, identifying as Ukrainian citizens first (as opposed to ‘inhabitant of the region or oblast where I live’, ‘representative of my ethnic group or nation’ or ‘citizen of the former Soviet Union’), takes precedence, escalating from 49% in 2012 to a substantial 82% in 2022. This shift reverberates across all regions, challenging historical notions of ethnolinguistic affiliations and reinstating Ukraine's self-perception within the realm of the modern political nation tradition.
Ukraine's geopolitical journey unfolds against the backdrop of shifting attitudes during the two recent decades. The sharp decline in pro-Russian sentiments, coupled with a simultaneous rise in pro-EU and pro-NATO attitudes, signifies the shaping of a fully-fledged modern nation navigating a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape. As Ukraine charts this course, the organic evolution of its geopolitical stance becomes a crucial focal point. To solidify these shifts and steer them towards permanence, a cohesive national development plan of reconstruction (which would be a priority after the devastating war) and democratic reforms are imperative. Aiming to ensure Ukraine's national sustainability and full integration into the democratic world is also crucial for the vital security interests of the West. Apparently, defending this interest requires greater determination and involvement from the Western allies. Whatever the plan of the key world decision-makers, Ukraine, it seems, is not merely adapting to global dynamics but actively shaping its geopolitical identity as history unfolds.