Kenneth Løvold Rødseth & Kjetil Fagerholt: Planning of zero emission ferry services

klr@toi.no


Kjetil Fagerholt
Professor
Norwegian University of Science and Technology
Norway

Phase-in of zero emission high-speed ferries will be costly. Novel and holistic transport planning is needed to limit operator and passenger cost increases in order to reach the goal of emission-free high-speed vessel. This is the key takeaway from our studies using optimization and economic analysis.

Emission-free high-speed ferry routes cost more

A transition to zero emission high-speed ferry services will be costly, even for short connections. Zero emission technologies require electricity, which currently exhibits substantial price volatility and can also result in significant development costs due to limited available transmission network capacity. Our research suggests that electrification of existing high-speed ferry routes will result in abatement costs ranging from 200 to 1 600 Euro per ton of carbon dioxide (CO2) removed. These figures exceed the Norwegian authorities' reference price for the social costs of CO2 of 175 Euro per ton in 2030. This is in part because of battery-powered vessels' limited range, which can require an increase in fleet size to uphold the current level of service.

Battery swap and hydrogen technologies can be adopted where range is a challenge for battery-electric vessels, which our calculations show can significantly improve the technical and economical feasibilities of zero emission high-speed ferry connections. Hydrogen is a less mature technology that will only become competitive when it has many users – also counting other sectors than high-speed ferries. But even in this case it can be demanding to maintain current routes as alternative fuels have inferior energy densities compared with fossil fuels, and more extensive charging/filling can result in passengers spending more time in transit.

New technology demands novel transport planning

The introduction of zero emission vessels changes the cost structure and the operational framework conditions of the high-speed ferry sector. This requires rethinking current operation plans and timetables to meet the premises of the new technologies. Important measures include adapting existing routes to reduce sailing distances or to reduce sailing speed to lower the energy consumption.

Cost-saving measures for ferry operators can adversely affect passengers through longer travel times or inferior level of service. This comes at the risk of having fewer public transport users and increased car traffic. However, a sole emphasis on upholding current timetables is likely to result in unnecessary operator cost increases and make the implementation of the proposed requirements for emission-free high-speed ferries challenging, both for the central government and the county governments that oversee public transit in Norway.

These are key trade-offs and considerations for forthcoming tenders for high-speed ferry operations. Comprehensive transport planning also involves looking into possibilities to replace expensive high-speed ferry transport by other means of public transport, such as buses, as well as planning for shared use of bunkering infrastructure to mitigate the substantial capital cost barrier to a green transition of the maritime fleet. Through novel and holistic transport planning, the additional costs of zero emission vessels can be significantly reduced.

The authors are associated with the research project ZEVS that studies technical and economical feasibilities of zero emission high-speed passenger vessels. More information about the project can be found under https://www.toi.no/zevs/, https://app.cristin.no/projects/show.jsf?id=2560947 and https://prosjektbanken.forskningsradet.no/project/FORISS/320659.