Peter Stenlund
Ambassador (ret)
Former
Permanent Secretary of the MFA
Finland
Finland and Sweden are closer than ever, during modern times. Simultaneous applications for membership in NATO and parallel ratifications of the membership were meant to fulfil the hand-in-hand process.
Finland became member in the Alliance last spring whereas Sweden is still waiting for ratifications in Turkey and Hungary. The Vilnius Summit gave new optimism of getting Sweden’s membership into force in early autumn. Since then, the political atmosphere has turned in a complicated direction. As a result of Islamist campaigning against Sweden and provocative Quran burnings Turkey may has become more reluctant to finalize the membership process during this autumn. Let us still hope that Sweden has become a full-fledged member by the time this article is published.
The delay in the ratification process has already caused harm in the entire Northern flank of the Alliance. There is an urgent need to fully include Sweden in defence planning for the North in a situation when we can´t see any end of Russia´s attack war on Ukraine. Deep bilateral cooperation between Sweden and Finland helps to some extent but can´t fully compensate the absence of Sweden in the deepest, concrete planning in NATO. Turkey and Hungary are in this issue behaving disloyally with Northern allies and the whole alliance.
The complications in the Swedish NATO process are revealing differences between Sweden and Finland. Some Swedish interlocutors admit that Turkey had a point in raising the need for better cooperation especially with their country in fighting terrorism – PKK-affiliated activists have been able to root themselves in the Swedish society to a totally other extent than in Finland. By now both Sweden and Finland have fulfilled their commitments with Turkey and taken concrete steps in fighting terrorism within the frame of rule of law.
Finland´s and Sweden´s NATO membership is giving a boost to Baltic Sea Rim economies. With stronger security, the whole region, with the obvious exception of Russia and Belarus, will become more attractive for investments and assist countries in adapting their economies to a world in disorder.
For still many years to come the security of European NATO allies are dependent on assistance from the United States. Finland and Sweden are engaged in negotiations with the US on bilateral defence cooperation agreements, which would facilitate both exercises and assistance during crisis and war. We need to prepare for situations where the US is expecting loyalty from us in the case the divide between democracies and authoritarian countries would lead to open conflicts and even military incidents.
Finland may have easier to acquire the alliance identity than Sweden. Neutrality and some sort of exceptionalism has for long been an essential ingredient in the identity of the Swedish nation. It is obvious that the main part of the Swedish people was taken by surprise by the fast decision on NATO membership. In Finland nonalignment was basically a pragmatic security solution, much easier to revise as a reflection of the security situation.
The need for intense dialogue on foreign and security policy is not over with the NATO membership. Both countries must consider their role in the alliance. One of the challenges ahead is the balancing between Europe and the US, taking into consideration political risks both in the US and in the EU. A new Trump period will most likely make it difficult for allies to swallow everything offered from Washington while still being dependent on US military back-up. A further strengthening of far-right populist forces in EU-countries would hinder a positive development of the EU´s role as security provider. While working for a stronger EU and making the best of any political situation in the US there is an obvious need for deeper Nordic cooperation as well as further deepening of Finnish/Swedish bilateral cooperation.
We need actions to strengthen the security of supply at many levels, transatlantic cooperation, the EU, among Nordic countries as well as bilaterally between neighbours. As the current slogan says, Sweden and Finland cooperate better than ever. Allow me a reminder. We witnessed another tone only a few years ago, during the initial phase of the Covid-pandemic. Actions were taken without proper dialogue and consideration of effects for the “most integrated region in the world”. Hanaholmen, the cultural centre for Sweden and Finland, got deeply concerned and made a successful initiative to strengthen bilateral ties in crisis preparedness.
For the time being there is a good government-level awareness of the need for intense bilateral cooperation – the Prime Ministers have agreed to organize regular joint meetings of both Governments, with similar meeting of Germany and France as a model. This should not be limited to the present Governments – there as a need for a long-term institutionalized arrangement regardless of political fluctuations and changes in the composition of Governments. And as a reminder, Sweden still insists to stay outside the EMU, joining the euro would be a crucial step towards the most integrated region in the world.