Albert Weckman
Doctoral Researcher
The Social Science Research Institute, Åbo Akademi University
Finland
Finland's choice to join NATO highlights the significant role public opinion can play in shaping national foreign and security policy decisions. It's reasonable to suggest that the swift endorsement from the political elite for Finland's accession to the alliance, might not have occurred without a substantial shift in public support in 2022. It's even plausible to consider that, without the robust backing reflected in public opinion polls, the decision to join NATO might not have been made at all.
Given the evident attention the political elite pays to public opinion, understanding it becomes a priority. Despite decades of surveying the Finnish public on foreign- and security policy issues, the underlying mechanisms of these attitudes remain largely unknown. My research aims to shed light on how security policy attitudes are developed and what influences them. It's clear that these security attitudes are highly responsive to significant changes in the external security environment. For instance, support for NATO membership in Finland has over the years notably shifted in the wake of aggressive actions by Russia, especially in 2014 and 2022. The sensitivity of public opinion to security shocks aligns with findings from previous research in other parts of the world in various global contexts.
As the security landscape deteriorates, certain security concerns become more crucial, notably citizens' willingness to defend their nation. Finland, much like Ukraine, relies on a substantial military reserve as the cornerstone of its national defense. This reliance highlights how important it is with a robust desire among citizens to protect their country against foreign aggression, a sentiment also clearly demonstrated in Ukraine's defense efforts. Despite a generally high readiness to counter foreign aggression in Finland, clear socioeconomic differences exist among its citizens. Our recent research findings reveal a significant correlation, or link, between individuals' personal wealth and their determination to resist foreign military aggression. In other words, the more personal assets you have, the more willing you are to personally defend Finland against any potential threats.
Beyond its national defense, Finland has now integrated into NATO's collective defense, often referred to as the "musketeer's clause”. This clause not only provides defense guarantees but also requires Finland’s support for allies in times of need. This means that Finland needs to formulate new policies on how to assist allies if they are attacked. Sentiments among Finnish citizens show strong support for providing military aid in form of weapons and equipment to defend an ally, though there is more hesitation regarding the dispatch of military reservists. This perspective is based on data from surveys conducted in November 2023 by the NATOpoll research project. Delving deeper into the factors that cultivate a strong sense of alliance solidarity, my preliminary research indicates that individuals with a strong attachment to Europe are significantly more supportive of Finland aiding its NATO allies during conflicts. This suggests that as long as Finns feel a strong European attachment, they are likely to view supporting their allies as crucial also in the future. Conversely, a weakening sense of European attachment could negatively affect the commitment to NATO's collective defense strategy.
Since public opinion will continue to influence national policy makers, it’s important to acknowledge that a current strong public support for a certain policy does not guarantee that its permanent. Security policy attitudes are deeply influenced by the context and can rapidly change in response to shifts in the security landscape. It's likely that the consensus in Finland regarding security issues will fluctuate over time. Public opinion surveys offer important insights but require careful interpretation, particularly when applied to complex matters like national security—areas that are challenging for individuals to fully comprehend or understand. Therefore, it's important to bear in mind that a significant surge in opinion is often followed by a decline. Eventually, public attitudes tend to stabilize and reverse. However, predicting when and to what extent this will occur is, of course, difficult so say.