Olevs Nikers
President
Baltic Security Foundation
Latvia
info@balticsecurity.eu
The regional context of the collective security system is strongly connected with any kind of deterrence and the national defense policies of particular countries that are vulnerable to the certain extent. Thinking of importance of a modern sub-regional security alliance we ultimately are focusing on the Euro Atlantic Baltic Sea countries which is determined by the increasing importance of the defense co-operation among the Baltic States and the Baltic Sea countries. Alongside the issues of NATO collective defense, the self-defense and regional co-operation capabilities of the Baltic States themselves are becoming more crucial at the times.
Modern collective and sub-collective security arrangement over the Baltic Sea region must address the most crucial geo-political challenges posed by the Russia a terrorist state. Let’s face it - there still are alarming vulnerabilities related to NATO's collective capability to protect the Baltic States in accordance to the Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which is closely related to the presence of Russia’s military forces in the region (Kaliningrad), vulnerability of the Suwalki-gap and, ultimately, the massive Russia’s military forces against the numerically small and weakly armed Baltic armies (including current EFP’s), as the armies of the militarily strong NATO countries and their parade capabilities are still in distance from the potential defensive positions of the Baltic States. And do not forget about Belarus in this play.
Example of the reaction of the major powers of the West to the Russia’s aggression against Ukraine is suggesting, that importance of coalition of will and regional arrangements of defenses are becoming more important in the evolving security space of the future.
Which is the most promising for the Baltic Sea region – is Finland and Sweden joining the Alliance. All the future of NATO may be dependent of this eventual Enlargement.
Leaders of the so-called Old Europe as France and Germany especially are absent to assess true Russia’s threat not only to its closest neighbors but for the whole of Europe. What if NATO as a collective arrangement has its decisive role in preserving peace in Europe since the end of the WW2? Are we living the times when we can examine effectiveness of these arrangements now? What if now it is a momentum to examine European leadership? France and Germany – where do you belong?
May we assume, for instance, that the ultimate arrangement to preserve peace in Europe has failed since February 24, 2022 with the outbreak of the major War in Europe? What if Putin thinks, that he already managed to defeat the whole concept of the Collective Defense by destruction he brought already? Or we may hope that there is one nation in Europe that will hold this fight against Nazi and terrorist state of Russia?
I would suggest to stay on the most optimistic side, but unfortunately there still is a reserved place for negotiations for Putin and his killers in Berlin most certainly. Scholz and eventually Macron too - they are still hoping for any kind of a peace agreement with the dictator and mass murderer Vladimir Putin who only can equal with Hitler.
In this case of absence of mind demonstrated by at least of only one leader of the powerful West, there is no hope for the European Defense and Security space, for the long-term peace and stability in Europe. There is no hope for the European future and prosperity.
In the vision of free and peaceful Europe, Russia must be defeated, crushed and punished by the international community. Russia must face the treatment of Nazi Germany as of 1945. Unfortunately, the whole Russian nation must fail in ruins before long standing peace to Europe would come with no compromise.
Let us imagine for a moment an alternative scenario to which has happened a year ago. If Nazi Russia instead of Ukraine or simultaneously invaded the Baltics – republics of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania in late February 2022. Now, from the current perspective it is obvious that neither Germany or France would act in this case. They would do nothing. They did not act properly for comparatively giant Ukraine, why they would be bothered of the three small Baltic nations? Having the most recent evidence, I doubt that argument of NATO membership would really cause a difference for the current leaders or France and Germany.
I may agree with Mr. Glen Grant an Associate of the Baltic Security Foundation, that the whole concept of the Common European and Security Defense has barely failed by the example of the complete failure of Germany and France to address the Ukraine issue so far. Sorry for the wording my fellow diplomats.
The concept of the Common European Security and Defense Policy of any kind is not possible to achieve without including all the Eastern European partners within the single chain of defense arrangements with the most powerful European Nations – simply saying – the most vulnerable countries to the Russia’s threat should be tied in a common defense arrangement with the most powerful nations of Europe. I’m wondering, if such a concept is realistic at all? France and especially Germany apparently do not care on these issues too much. This is why the sub-regional security alliance across the Baltic Sea region and Eastern European Domain is so important, and its matters.
The sub-regional security alliance should have its ultimate reach to the wider Eastern European Domain. Should there be a connection with the B9 arrangement? Of course!
The worst-case scenario for the Eastern and Central Europe is full or major dismiss of the capabilities of Germany and possibly France in defending whole region of Europe in face of Russia’s Invasion. In other words – if Germany and France would openly declare their non-commitment to the Eastern Europe Defense which actually is happening.
Only reliable partner remains U.S. and spirit of the free Eastern European and Baltic democracies to fight! Northern Europe with emerging friendship and attachment of Finland and Sweden would come as a hopeful ally for the victory over the tyranny.
Europe must not only to counter the Russia’s threat but also be ready for Chinese encroachment, which is happening already. If we take the Transatlantic approach then our American friends should realize – the more successful we in Europe are in countering the Russia’s threat on the Eastern Flank, the more successfully we can address the challenges of Chinese malign influence.
Consolidation of resources and defensive capabilities across the region is an ultimate task for the regional partners. I see the main two directions in this regard – this consolidation should be succeeded within the wider Baltic Sea region and within the eastern direction, which must include Baltic countries and Poland. Poland and Baltic countries should synchronize their defenses as much as possible. It should also include Finland and Sweden.
The three Baltic countries should fully synchronize their defenses – operational planning, and within developing capabilities, especially air defense and for maritime security. Budgeting and planning should be synchronized in order to proceed with joint procurement projects, which would allow to build up more solid air defense and naval capabilities.
The idea for Finland and Sweden in becoming NATO members should materialize in fully harmonized regional security and defense system among the partnering countries across the Baltic Sea.
If we are looking on the other – non-military domains of the security alliance, developing offensive capabilities within the cyber domain is necessary in order to enable preemptive operations within this domain, if necessary. Full energy independence from Russia should be succeeded in Europe.
Russia’s financial capital should be minimized and zeroed in Europe, especially eastern and central Europe. The same goes to the informational channels and projects of the cultural diplomacy, which should be monitored more strictly and cut if necessary. Societal resilience should be further strengthened in the Baltic countries and Poland, that society is prepared against the hybrid threats, provocations or for the crisis situations, including possible offensive by Russia.
Although the integration of defense within the existing small member states of NATO is not standing contrary to the principle of collective defense, the security cooperation among the Baltic States since the restoration of independence of these countries has been very limited, mainly due to the differences in the defense systems of these countries and in political guidelines. What about to change these practices now?
From the level of operational and institutional cooperation among the Baltic States and the greater Baltic Sea region depends grand capacity of the three countries and the whole region to respond in the event of hybrid offense or conventional offensive. I would bet for us to be ready. Are we now?
Modern collective and sub-collective security arrangement over the Baltic Sea region must address the most crucial geo-political challenges posed by the Russia a terrorist state. Let’s face it - there still are alarming vulnerabilities related to NATO's collective capability to protect the Baltic States in accordance to the Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which is closely related to the presence of Russia’s military forces in the region (Kaliningrad), vulnerability of the Suwalki-gap and, ultimately, the massive Russia’s military forces against the numerically small and weakly armed Baltic armies (including current EFP’s), as the armies of the militarily strong NATO countries and their parade capabilities are still in distance from the potential defensive positions of the Baltic States. And do not forget about Belarus in this play.
Example of the reaction of the major powers of the West to the Russia’s aggression against Ukraine is suggesting, that importance of coalition of will and regional arrangements of defenses are becoming more important in the evolving security space of the future.
Which is the most promising for the Baltic Sea region – is Finland and Sweden joining the Alliance. All the future of NATO may be dependent of this eventual Enlargement.
Leaders of the so-called Old Europe as France and Germany especially are absent to assess true Russia’s threat not only to its closest neighbors but for the whole of Europe. What if NATO as a collective arrangement has its decisive role in preserving peace in Europe since the end of the WW2? Are we living the times when we can examine effectiveness of these arrangements now? What if now it is a momentum to examine European leadership? France and Germany – where do you belong?
May we assume, for instance, that the ultimate arrangement to preserve peace in Europe has failed since February 24, 2022 with the outbreak of the major War in Europe? What if Putin thinks, that he already managed to defeat the whole concept of the Collective Defense by destruction he brought already? Or we may hope that there is one nation in Europe that will hold this fight against Nazi and terrorist state of Russia?
I would suggest to stay on the most optimistic side, but unfortunately there still is a reserved place for negotiations for Putin and his killers in Berlin most certainly. Scholz and eventually Macron too - they are still hoping for any kind of a peace agreement with the dictator and mass murderer Vladimir Putin who only can equal with Hitler.
In this case of absence of mind demonstrated by at least of only one leader of the powerful West, there is no hope for the European Defense and Security space, for the long-term peace and stability in Europe. There is no hope for the European future and prosperity.
In the vision of free and peaceful Europe, Russia must be defeated, crushed and punished by the international community. Russia must face the treatment of Nazi Germany as of 1945. Unfortunately, the whole Russian nation must fail in ruins before long standing peace to Europe would come with no compromise.
Let us imagine for a moment an alternative scenario to which has happened a year ago. If Nazi Russia instead of Ukraine or simultaneously invaded the Baltics – republics of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania in late February 2022. Now, from the current perspective it is obvious that neither Germany or France would act in this case. They would do nothing. They did not act properly for comparatively giant Ukraine, why they would be bothered of the three small Baltic nations? Having the most recent evidence, I doubt that argument of NATO membership would really cause a difference for the current leaders or France and Germany.
I may agree with Mr. Glen Grant an Associate of the Baltic Security Foundation, that the whole concept of the Common European and Security Defense has barely failed by the example of the complete failure of Germany and France to address the Ukraine issue so far. Sorry for the wording my fellow diplomats.
The concept of the Common European Security and Defense Policy of any kind is not possible to achieve without including all the Eastern European partners within the single chain of defense arrangements with the most powerful European Nations – simply saying – the most vulnerable countries to the Russia’s threat should be tied in a common defense arrangement with the most powerful nations of Europe. I’m wondering, if such a concept is realistic at all? France and especially Germany apparently do not care on these issues too much. This is why the sub-regional security alliance across the Baltic Sea region and Eastern European Domain is so important, and its matters.
The sub-regional security alliance should have its ultimate reach to the wider Eastern European Domain. Should there be a connection with the B9 arrangement? Of course!
The worst-case scenario for the Eastern and Central Europe is full or major dismiss of the capabilities of Germany and possibly France in defending whole region of Europe in face of Russia’s Invasion. In other words – if Germany and France would openly declare their non-commitment to the Eastern Europe Defense which actually is happening.
Only reliable partner remains U.S. and spirit of the free Eastern European and Baltic democracies to fight! Northern Europe with emerging friendship and attachment of Finland and Sweden would come as a hopeful ally for the victory over the tyranny.
Europe must not only to counter the Russia’s threat but also be ready for Chinese encroachment, which is happening already. If we take the Transatlantic approach then our American friends should realize – the more successful we in Europe are in countering the Russia’s threat on the Eastern Flank, the more successfully we can address the challenges of Chinese malign influence.
Consolidation of resources and defensive capabilities across the region is an ultimate task for the regional partners. I see the main two directions in this regard – this consolidation should be succeeded within the wider Baltic Sea region and within the eastern direction, which must include Baltic countries and Poland. Poland and Baltic countries should synchronize their defenses as much as possible. It should also include Finland and Sweden.
The three Baltic countries should fully synchronize their defenses – operational planning, and within developing capabilities, especially air defense and for maritime security. Budgeting and planning should be synchronized in order to proceed with joint procurement projects, which would allow to build up more solid air defense and naval capabilities.
The idea for Finland and Sweden in becoming NATO members should materialize in fully harmonized regional security and defense system among the partnering countries across the Baltic Sea.
If we are looking on the other – non-military domains of the security alliance, developing offensive capabilities within the cyber domain is necessary in order to enable preemptive operations within this domain, if necessary. Full energy independence from Russia should be succeeded in Europe.
Russia’s financial capital should be minimized and zeroed in Europe, especially eastern and central Europe. The same goes to the informational channels and projects of the cultural diplomacy, which should be monitored more strictly and cut if necessary. Societal resilience should be further strengthened in the Baltic countries and Poland, that society is prepared against the hybrid threats, provocations or for the crisis situations, including possible offensive by Russia.
Although the integration of defense within the existing small member states of NATO is not standing contrary to the principle of collective defense, the security cooperation among the Baltic States since the restoration of independence of these countries has been very limited, mainly due to the differences in the defense systems of these countries and in political guidelines. What about to change these practices now?
From the level of operational and institutional cooperation among the Baltic States and the greater Baltic Sea region depends grand capacity of the three countries and the whole region to respond in the event of hybrid offense or conventional offensive. I would bet for us to be ready. Are we now?