David Criekemans
Associate Professor in ‘International Politics’
University of Antwerp
Belgium
Associate Professor in ‘International Politics’
KU Leuven
Belgium
Assistant Professor in ‘International Relations’
University College Roosevelt (Utrecht University)
Middelburg, The Netherlands
Senior Lecturer in ‘Geopolitics’
Geneva Institute of Geopolitical Studies (GIGS)
Switzerland
The war in Ukraine in 2022 brought new insights around energy. For years, energy specialists had been arguing for a greater focus on energy diversification, with mixed success. There is now an increased political realization that there is a need to diversify both functionally in terms of types of energy and geographically in terms of origin of sources. In addition, renewables are gaining geopolitical importance in Europe. Governments must now also catch up on strategic thinking about the energy mix. Geopolitics can help.
Geopolitics is the scientific field of study belonging to both Political Geography and International Relations, which investigates the interaction between politically acting (wo)men and their surrounding territoriality (in its three dimensions; physical-geographical, human-geographical and spatial). During the last fifteen years, ‘geopolitics of energy’ became central to the international political position of countries and regions. This can be defined as “a condition in which a country or several, or most of its citizens and businesses have access to sufficient energy resources at reasonable prices for the foreseeable future, free from any serious risk of major disruption of service”. Next to security of supply issues (important for consumer countries and territories), there exists also security of demand (important for producer countries and territories). The reliability of supply is closely connected to the functioning of energy markets. The only actors which this definition of ‘energy security’ does not completely address are transit countries and regions, for instance the predicament of countries such as Ukraine, which had already in the past major pipelines (Brotherhood, Yamal) running over its territory from the East (Soviet Union and later the Russian Federation) towards the markets in the West. The war in Ukraine since 2022 has given new political urgency to energy security, for instance via diversification strategies, both functional (gas, nuclear, renewables) and geopolitical.
Another consequence has been that energy transition has speeded up. In December 2022, the International Energy Agency (IEA) of the Organization for Economic Cooperation in Europe (OECD) released an interesting report on 'Renewables 2022'. The IEA expects renewable capacity to expand much faster over the next five years than what was expected just a year ago. For the period 2022-2027, renewables are expected to grow by almost 2,400 GW, equal to China's entire installed capacity in 2022. This is an 85% acceleration from the previous five years. At almost 30% higher than in 2021, this is the IEA's biggest ever upward revision for renewables. This is mainly due to China, the European Union (REPower EU), the United States (Inflation Reduction Act) and India.
Between 2023 and 2025, renewables will become the largest source of global electricity generation, surpassing coal. Their share in the energy mix is expected to increase by 10 percentage points, to 38% by 2027. Electricity from wind and solar PV will more than double over the next five years, accounting for almost 20% of global electricity generation by 2027. Global wind capacity will almost double, with offshore projects accounting for a fifth of the growth. More than 570 gigawatts of new onshore wind capacity is expected to become operational in the 2022-27 period. Growth of offshore wind power is accelerating globally, while Europe's share of installed offshore capacity falls from 50% in 2021 to 30% in 2027 as China's provincial policy supports faster expansion and the United States soon becomes a significant market. China is expected to have almost half of new global renewable energy capacity by 2022-2027. In the US, the Inflation Reduction Act provides unprecedented long-term visibility for wind and solar PV projects.
Only if the European Union thinks more strategically in the coming years about how this scaling-up will affect our energy diversification, will it be possible to reap benefits in geopolitical terms. We need to put our eggs in multiple baskets both functionally (technologies) and geographically (resources). If not, we are causing a next future energy crisis. Moreover, a lesson from 2022 is that in recent years we did not invest enough in excess 'fossil capacity' (oil, gas, nuclear). Such insights should guide governments' and companies' energy policies in 2023 and beyond. In addition a regulatory framework is needed which does not constantly change (and thus significantly complicates investment decisions).
Read the IEA report 'Renewables 2022’ via https://www.iea.org/reports/renewables-2022
Geopolitics is the scientific field of study belonging to both Political Geography and International Relations, which investigates the interaction between politically acting (wo)men and their surrounding territoriality (in its three dimensions; physical-geographical, human-geographical and spatial). During the last fifteen years, ‘geopolitics of energy’ became central to the international political position of countries and regions. This can be defined as “a condition in which a country or several, or most of its citizens and businesses have access to sufficient energy resources at reasonable prices for the foreseeable future, free from any serious risk of major disruption of service”. Next to security of supply issues (important for consumer countries and territories), there exists also security of demand (important for producer countries and territories). The reliability of supply is closely connected to the functioning of energy markets. The only actors which this definition of ‘energy security’ does not completely address are transit countries and regions, for instance the predicament of countries such as Ukraine, which had already in the past major pipelines (Brotherhood, Yamal) running over its territory from the East (Soviet Union and later the Russian Federation) towards the markets in the West. The war in Ukraine since 2022 has given new political urgency to energy security, for instance via diversification strategies, both functional (gas, nuclear, renewables) and geopolitical.
Another consequence has been that energy transition has speeded up. In December 2022, the International Energy Agency (IEA) of the Organization for Economic Cooperation in Europe (OECD) released an interesting report on 'Renewables 2022'. The IEA expects renewable capacity to expand much faster over the next five years than what was expected just a year ago. For the period 2022-2027, renewables are expected to grow by almost 2,400 GW, equal to China's entire installed capacity in 2022. This is an 85% acceleration from the previous five years. At almost 30% higher than in 2021, this is the IEA's biggest ever upward revision for renewables. This is mainly due to China, the European Union (REPower EU), the United States (Inflation Reduction Act) and India.
Between 2023 and 2025, renewables will become the largest source of global electricity generation, surpassing coal. Their share in the energy mix is expected to increase by 10 percentage points, to 38% by 2027. Electricity from wind and solar PV will more than double over the next five years, accounting for almost 20% of global electricity generation by 2027. Global wind capacity will almost double, with offshore projects accounting for a fifth of the growth. More than 570 gigawatts of new onshore wind capacity is expected to become operational in the 2022-27 period. Growth of offshore wind power is accelerating globally, while Europe's share of installed offshore capacity falls from 50% in 2021 to 30% in 2027 as China's provincial policy supports faster expansion and the United States soon becomes a significant market. China is expected to have almost half of new global renewable energy capacity by 2022-2027. In the US, the Inflation Reduction Act provides unprecedented long-term visibility for wind and solar PV projects.
Only if the European Union thinks more strategically in the coming years about how this scaling-up will affect our energy diversification, will it be possible to reap benefits in geopolitical terms. We need to put our eggs in multiple baskets both functionally (technologies) and geographically (resources). If not, we are causing a next future energy crisis. Moreover, a lesson from 2022 is that in recent years we did not invest enough in excess 'fossil capacity' (oil, gas, nuclear). Such insights should guide governments' and companies' energy policies in 2023 and beyond. In addition a regulatory framework is needed which does not constantly change (and thus significantly complicates investment decisions).
Read the IEA report 'Renewables 2022’ via https://www.iea.org/reports/renewables-2022