BSR Policy Briefing 1/2017

Russia and the security in the Baltic Sea region.
Authored by Justyna Gotkowska & Piotr Szymański.

In recent years Russian annexation of Crimea and military intervention in eastern Ukraine together with negative developments in domestic policy have confirmed that Russia with its politico-economic system generates a challenge to the West of a comprehensive and a long-term nature. Under Vladimir Putin, Russia has evolved to a revisionist power aiming to restore its domination in the post-Soviet area and to change the post-Cold War order. Kremlin wants to weaken the West which is perceived as the main opponent of its plans to build a new security order in Eurasia and globally. 

The Baltic Sea region – with exposed Baltic states as well as non-aligned Sweden and Finland – is perceived by Russia as a convenient test bed in attempting to achieve this goal. The recent deployment of new types of air and missile defence, coastal defence and ballistic missile systems in the Kaliningrad Oblast has significantly expanded the spectrum of the Russian troops’ attack capabilities and created a so-called anti-access/area denial bubble in the Baltic Sea region. Russia has been also increasing its capabilities for rapid deployment of troops in its Western military district for some years now.

Russian aggressive and provocative policy in the region and beyond have led to a rethink in defence policies of the Baltic Sea region countries and to more focus on territorial defence. Simultaneously, the Baltic Sea region has experienced a significant change in NATO’s policy in 2016, when both the US and NATO recognized that Russia represents a serious and long-term challenge to the Alliance and needs a tougher response. However, the election of Donald J. Trump for the US President, Brexit, and an unknown outcome of presidential and parliamentary elections in France and Germany in 2017 creates new risks and challenges to the security of the Baltic Sea region that need to be adressed. 

Download the BSR Policy Briefing here.

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